Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez Stats & Odds — Noche UFC

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Tim Elliott

edge

Edgar Chairez

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

B

61st

1.5

Even

B

65th

1.6

Defense

C

57th

56%

+44

F

13th

46%

KO power

F

3 KO

0.1 KD

+29

C

4 KO

0.5 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Elliott

Elliott has the bigger wrestling edge on Chairez

Takedowns landed

A+

90th

3.6

+83

F

7th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

45%

0%

Takedown defense

C

44th

59%

+16

D

28th

46%

Control time

A

78th

4.5 min

+70

F

8th

0.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Chairez ▸

Chairez is the bigger submission threat on Elliott

Submission attempts

A

74th

1.1

+20

A+

93rd

1.7

Sub win rate

A

73rd

38%

8 subs

+15

A+

88th

62%

8 subs

Submission defense

D

34th

17%

+8

D

42nd

11%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Chairez ▸

Chairez is more likely to finish Elliott

Finish rate

C

45th

30%

+24

B

69th

75%

KO durability

C

51st

0%

Even

C

49th

0%

Submission defense

D

29th

23%

+18

C

47th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Elliott

Elliott pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Chairez's pace builds while Elliott's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.5

4.2

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.5

3.9

Pace trend

-3%/rd

+10%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Chairez ▸

Chairez is in better recent form than Elliott

Win rate (career)

45%

67%

After a win

40%

67%

Last 5

60%

80%

Win streakL1W3

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Elliott

Elliott has faced the tougher schedule vs Chairez

Schedule strength

62%

30%

Win quality

30%

47%

Ranked opponents

15

1

Title-holder bouts

1

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

3mo

1mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

Even

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Chairez ▸

Chairez 5" reach · Chairez 9y younger · Open-stance matchup

Tim ElliottvsEdgar Chairez

39

Age

9y

younger

30

5'7"

170cm

Height

Even

5'7"

170cm

66"

168cm

Reach

5"

reach

71"

180cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Tim ElliottEdgar Chairez

Percentile

Striking/min3.513.65

Accuracy%43%45%

Defense%56%46%

Takedowns/153.60.0

TD defense%59%38%

Submissions/151.11.3

Career rate as a percentile within the flyweight (117 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

ElliottTim Elliott

ChairezEdgar Chairez

—

As pick'em

1-0100%

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

ElliottTim Elliott

Stat

ChairezEdgar Chairez

0

KO / TKO

0

3

5

Submission

3

0

7

Decision

1

2

12:16

Avg fight time

9:00

Tim Elliott’s splits

vs Chairez

vs Southpaw

3-350%

vs Switch

1-150%

vs Shorter reach

2-433%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Edgar Chairez’s splits

vs Elliott

vs Orthodox

3-260%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Tim ElliottvsEdgar Chairez

39

Age

9y

younger

30

5'7"

170cm

Height

Even

5'7"

170cm

66"

168cm

Reach

5"

reach

71"

180cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

47th

Even

C

44th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Elliott’s offensevsChairez’s defense

Where Elliott attacks (green = high volume) vs where Chairez gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Elliott’s green zones meeting Chairez’s red zones are the openings.

Tim ElliottOffense

Head58%55th548
Body20%57th185
Leg23%74th215

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Edgar ChairezDefense

Head68%25th177
Body14%52nd36
Leg18%25th47

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Elliott — by position

66%Standing

Standing66%627
Clinch16%155
Ground18%166

Chairez — absorbed by position

82%Standing

Standing82%212
Clinch2%6
Ground16%42

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Elliott’s offensevsChairez’s defense

Head

C

55th

30.4

+30

F

25th

42.5

Body

C

57th

10.3

Even

C

52nd

10.7

Leg

A

74th

11.4

+49

D

25th

11.0

Chairez’s offensevsElliott’s defense

Head

B

63rd

33.9

+14

C

49th

32.6

Body

B

61st

10.7

Even

B

64th

8.9

Leg

B

62nd

9.5

+12

A

75th

4.9

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Tim Elliott	above division average30.4	35%	around division average32.6	548
Head	Edgar Chairez	above division average33.9	39%	well below average42.5	133
Body	Tim Elliott	above division average10.3	54%	above division average8.9	185
Body	Edgar Chairez	above division average10.7	70%	around division average10.7	39
Leg	Tim Elliott	top 26% of division11.4	77%	top 25% of division4.9	215
Leg	Edgar Chairez	above division average9.5	75%	well below average11.0	39

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Tim Elliott

Edgar Chairez

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

69th

+27

C

42nd

Elliott holds a decisive grappling edge (+27).

Takedowns

A

85th

3.6

+54

D

30th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

B

70th

45%

65/143

0%

0/2

Takedown defense

C

44th

59%

38/64

+16

D

28th

46%

6/13

Submission threat

A

72nd

1.1

Even

A

79th

1.7

Control time

A

76th

4.5 min

+44

D

32nd

0.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Tim Elliott	Edgar Chairez
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	3.665	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	45%65 / 143	0%0 / 2
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	59%38 / 64	46%6 / 13
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.119	1.76
Control time / 15 (min)career total	4.5 min80:45	0.4 min1:32
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	3.3 min58:32	5.2 min18:50

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Tim Elliott

50

Schedule Score

Edgar Chairez

38

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

270 min

22 bouts

Octagon time

216 min

more

54 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

62%

30%

Win quality

30%

47%

Ranked opponents

15

1

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Tim Elliott	Edgar Chairez
Champion	0-2	0-1
Top-5	0-6	—
Ranked 6–15	6-4	1-0
Cross-div ranked	2-0	0-1
Unproven	2-0	3-0, 1 NC

Tim Elliott — bouts

Edgar Chairez — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Tim Elliott

Edgar Chairez

Elliott — last 5

recent → old

Chairez — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

4-1

Current streak

L1

W3

Ranked opps

3 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

45 d

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Tim Elliott

Edgar Chairez

Camp length

SituationElliott Chairez

Short turnaround< 100 days

2-340%

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

2-340%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

6-555%

3-175%

Post-result bounce

SituationElliott Chairez

After a loss

6-555%

2-0100%

After a win

4-640%

2-167%

Title fights

SituationElliott Chairez

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-10%

—

As challengerfor the belt

0-10%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Tim Elliott

Edgar Chairez

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Elliott11W–7L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Chairez13W–2L by finish · 77% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑40%·Chairez

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑40%·Chairez

D

26th

52%

+59

A

85th

92%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

49%

26%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

B

67th

3%

Even

B

69th

0%

Submission defense

↑6%·Chairez

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Chairez

F

16th

17%

+17

D

33rd

11%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Tim Elliott	Edgar Chairez
Wins
by KO / TKO	3(14%)	4(31%)
by submission	8(38%)	8(62%)
by decision	10(48%)	1(8%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(7%)	0(0%)
by submission	6(43%)	2(33%)
by decision	7(50%)	4(67%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Tim Elliott

vs

Edgar Chairez

0%

0 KO/TKO in 22 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

2

0.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

2.3 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Tim ElliottFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Muhammad Mokaev2y 9mo ago
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023 · R3 · 3:03

Edgar ChairezFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Tim Elliott

96%

R3 vs R1 · 15 bouts reaching R3

Edgar Chairez

142%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Chairez: Chairez builds (+11% per round through round 3) while Elliott fades (-3% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Elliott keeps 96% of round-1 output by round 3, Chairez 142%.

Elliott ▼ FADES

Chairez ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Elliott

Chairezlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Elliott

Chairezattempts / min

Control time

Elliott

Chairez% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Tim Elliott	6.9	3.8	2.7	0.61	34%	22
R1	Edgar Chairez	3.9	3.8	3.4	0.00	4%	6
R2	Tim Elliott	6.0	3.2	3.1	0.57	27%	18
R2	Edgar Chairez	3.8	3.5	7.2	0.07	2%	3
R3	Tim Elliott	6.5	4.0	3.5	0.44	30%	15
R3	Edgar Chairez	4.8	4.5	4.7	0.07	3%	3
R4	Tim Elliott	0.4	0.4	1.4	0.00	0%	1
R4	Edgar Chairez	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Tim Elliott	1.2	0.2	0.4	0.20	10%	1
R5	Edgar Chairez	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.