Kelvin Gastelum vs Yousri Belgaroui Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Kelvin Gastelum

edge

Yousri Belgaroui

Striking

Belgaroui ▸

Belgaroui out-strikes Gastelum (thin sample)

Effective offense

B

66th

1.5

+33

A+

99th

3.9

Defense

C

55th

57%

+30

A

85th

63%

KO power

D

6 KO

0.3 KD

+22

B

8 KO

1.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Gastelum

Gastelum has the bigger wrestling edge on Belgaroui (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

C

46th

1.0

+13

D

33rd

0.6

Takedown accuracy

35%

100%

Takedown defense

C

48th

60%

+9

D

39th

56%

Control time

D

34th

2.0 min

+15

F

19th

1.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats (thin sample)

Submission attempts

D

38th

0.1

+19

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

63rd

25%

5 subs

+10

C

53rd

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

33rd

13%

+12

C

45th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Belgaroui ▸

Belgaroui is more likely to finish Gastelum (thin sample)

Finish rate

D

29th

36%

+27

C

56th

100%

KO durability

A

72nd

0%

+14

C

58th

0%

Submission defense

D

31st

16%

Even

D

39th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Belgaroui ▸

Belgaroui pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

4.8

9.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.6

7.5

Pace trend

+9%/rd

+34%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Belgaroui ▸

Belgaroui is in better recent form than Gastelum (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

56%

100%

After a win

43%

100%

Last 5

40%

100%

Win streakL1W5

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Gastelum

Gastelum has faced the tougher schedule vs Belgaroui (thin sample)

Schedule strength

59%

16%

Win quality

43%

66%

Ranked opponents

17

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

3mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

Even

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

Even

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Belgaroui ▸

Belgaroui 8" reach · Belgaroui 20 cm · Open-stance matchup

Kelvin GastelumvsYousri Belgaroui

34

Age

Even

34

5'9"

175cm

Height

8"

taller

6'5"

196cm

71"

180cm

Reach

8"

reach

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Kelvin GastelumYousri Belgaroui

Percentile

Striking/min3.656.10

Accuracy%42%64%

Defense%57%63%

Takedowns/151.00.3

TD defense%60%66%

Submissions/150.10.0

Career rate as a percentile within the middleweight (353 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Yousri Belgaroui, from opponents’ full pro records

Yousri Belgaroui

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

77-61

.558 win rate

Winning-record opponents

7 of 9

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

9

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

GastelumKelvin Gastelum

BelgarouiYousri Belgaroui

2-250%

As pick'em

—

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

GastelumKelvin Gastelum

Stat

BelgarouiYousri Belgaroui

3

0

KO / TKO

2

—

2

4

Submission

0

—

9

7

Decision

0

—

13:44

Avg fight time

12:17

Kelvin Gastelum’s splits

vs Belgaroui

vs Southpaw

3-175%

vs Switch

0-20%

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Yousri Belgaroui’s splits

vs Gastelum

vs Orthodox

2-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Kelvin GastelumvsYousri Belgaroui

34

Age

Even

34

5'9"

175cm

Height

8"

taller

6'5"

196cm

71"

180cm

Reach

8"

reach

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

54th

+28

A

82nd

Belgaroui holds a decisive striking edge (+28).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Gastelum’s offensevsBelgaroui’s defense

Head

A

71st

34.3

+11

B

60th

26.7

Body

B

61st

10.1

Even

B

60th

7.7

Leg

A

73rd

9.0

+15

C

57th

5.9

Belgaroui’s offensevsGastelum’s defense

Head

A+

88th

46.4

+46

C

42nd

33.2

Body

A

83rd

14.7

+56

D

28th

11.5

Leg

A

79th

11.3

+36

C

44th

7.8

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Kelvin Gastelum	top 29% of division34.3	34%	below division average33.2	799
Head	Yousri Belgaroui	top 12% of division46.4	60%	above division average26.7	127
Body	Kelvin Gastelum	above division average10.1	71%	well below average11.5	233
Body	Yousri Belgaroui	top 17% of division14.7	80%	above division average7.7	39
Leg	Kelvin Gastelum	top 27% of division9.0	85%	below division average7.8	211
Leg	Yousri Belgaroui	top 21% of division11.3	88%	above division average5.9	30

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Kelvin Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

44th

Even

C

46th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

48th

1.0

Even

C

50th

0.6

Takedown accuracy

C

46th

35%

24/68

100%

1/1

Takedown defense

C

48th

60%

55/91

+9

D

39th

56%

9/16

Submission threat

D

39th

0.1

+14

C

53rd

0.0

Control time

D

38th

2.0 min

Even

C

43rd

1.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Kelvin Gastelum	Yousri Belgaroui
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.024	0.61
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	35%24 / 68	100%1 / 1
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	60%55 / 91	56%9 / 16
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.12	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.0 min46:33	1.0 min1:39
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.2 min51:25	3.3 min5:25

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Kelvin Gastelum

55

Schedule Score

Yousri Belgaroui

31

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

343 min

25 bouts

Octagon time

318 min

more

25 min

2 bouts

Schedule strength

59%

16%

Win quality

43%

66%

Ranked opponents

17

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Kelvin Gastelum	Yousri Belgaroui
Champion	2-4	—
Top-5	3-5, 1 NC	—
Ranked 6–15	4-1	—
Cross-div ranked	1-1	—
Established	1-0	—
Building	1-0	2-0
Unproven	2-0	—

Kelvin Gastelum — bouts

Yousri Belgaroui — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Kelvin Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui

Gastelum — last 5

recent → old

Belgaroui — last 5

recent → old

WLFL 11

DEC

Sami

Feb ’24

WLFL 10

KO R1

Kvelidze

Oct ’23

WUAE

KO R2

Pretorius

Feb ’23

Last 5 record

2-3

5-0

Current streak

L1

W5

Ranked opps

1 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

Even

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Kelvin Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui

Post-result bounce

SituationGastelum Belgaroui

After a loss

7-370%

—

After a win

6-843%

1-0100%

Camp length

SituationGastelum Belgaroui

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-233%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

7-278%

1-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

5-742%

—

Title fights

SituationGastelum Belgaroui

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-10%

—

As challengerfor the belt

0-10%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Kelvin Gastelum

Yousri Belgaroui

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Gastelum11W–4L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Belgaroui7W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑25%·Belgaroui

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑25%·Belgaroui

F

15th

55%

+37

C

51st

80%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

52%

38%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A

81st

0%

Even

A

80th

0%

Submission defense

↑13%·Belgaroui

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑13%·Belgaroui

D

27th

13%

+40

B

67th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Kelvin Gastelum	Yousri Belgaroui
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(30%)	8(80%)
by submission	5(25%)	0(0%)
by decision	9(45%)	2(20%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0(0%)
by submission	4(36%)	0(0%)
by decision	7(64%)	3(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Kelvin Gastelum

vs

Yousri Belgaroui

12%

3 KO/TKO in 25 bouts

Knockout rate

75%

3 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

8

1.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

1.6 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

9

1.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Kelvin GastelumFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Vicente Luque3 months ago
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · Apr 11, 2026 · R1 · 4:08

Yousri BelgarouiFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Kelvin Gastelum

132%

R3 vs R1 · 19 bouts reaching R3

Yousri Belgaroui

206%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Belgaroui leans harder: Belgaroui builds (+35% per round through round 3), Gastelum builds (+9% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Gastelum lifts to 132% of round-1 output by round 3, Belgaroui 206%.

Gastelum ▲ BUILDS

Belgaroui ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Gastelum

Belgarouilanded / min

Takedown attempts

Gastelum

Belgarouiattempts / min

Control time

Gastelum

Belgaroui% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Kelvin Gastelum	4.3	3.4	2.9	0.14	14%	25
R1	Yousri Belgaroui	5.9	5.9	1.7	0.00	0%	2
R2	Kelvin Gastelum	4.8	3.9	3.9	0.16	12%	20
R2	Yousri Belgaroui	9.1	8.2	2.0	0.10	15%	2
R3	Kelvin Gastelum	5.2	4.0	3.9	0.26	12%	19
R3	Yousri Belgaroui	12.2	12.0	0.7	0.00	3%	2
R4	Kelvin Gastelum	5.2	3.5	3.5	0.30	20%	4
R4	Yousri Belgaroui	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Kelvin Gastelum	4.3	2.4	3.9	0.35	23%	4
R5	Yousri Belgaroui	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.