Compare Belal Muhammad vs Islam Makhachev — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Islam has 6 months more layoff
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Welterweight roster (490 fighters).
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Belal Muhammad | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 1-1, 1 NC | 2-0 |
| Top-5 | 5-3 | 3-0 |
| Top-15 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Cross-div champ | — | 2-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | — | 2-0 |
| Long-tenured vet | 1-0 | — |
| Contender-level | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Established | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Building | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Unproven | 3-0 | 1-0 |
- L vs Gabriel Bonfim#1174Jun 6, 2026 · Top-5
- L vs Ian Machado Garry#685Nov 22, 2025 · Top-5
- L vs Jack Della Maddalena#592May 10, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Leon EdwardsCHAMP100Jul 27, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Gilbert Burns#586May 6, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Sean Brady#884Oct 22, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Vicente Luque#481Apr 16, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Stephen Thompson#586Dec 18, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Demian Maia#983Jun 12, 2021 · Top-5
- NC vs Leon Edwards#394Mar 13, 2021 · Champion
- W vs Dhiego Lima12Feb 13, 2021 · Unproven
- W vs Lyman Good18Jun 20, 2020 · Building
- W vs Takashi Sato8Sep 7, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Curtis Millender#1560Apr 13, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Geoff Neal52Jan 19, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Chance Rencountre15Jun 1, 2018 · Building
- W vs Tim Means35Nov 18, 2017 · Established
- W vs Jordan Mein#1363Jul 8, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Randy Brown45Feb 11, 2017 · Long-tenured vet
- L vs Vicente Luque59Nov 12, 2016 · Top-5
- W vs Augusto Montano8Sep 17, 2016 · Unproven
- L vs Alan Jouban36Jul 7, 2016 · Contender-level
- W vs Jack Della MaddalenaCHAMP100Nov 15, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Renato Moicano#1069Jan 18, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Dustin Poirier#490Jun 1, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Alexander Volkanovski78Oct 21, 2023 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Alexander Volkanovski78Feb 11, 2023 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Charles Oliveira#198Oct 22, 2022 · Champion
- W vs King Green45Feb 26, 2022 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Dan Hooker#878Oct 30, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Thiago Moises#1462Jul 17, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Drew Dober#1562Mar 6, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Davi Ramos18Sep 7, 2019 · Building
- W vs Arman Tsarukyan61Apr 20, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Kajan Johnson18Jul 28, 2018 · Building
- W vs Gleison Tibau50Jan 20, 2018 · Contender-level
- W vs Nik Lentz45Feb 11, 2017 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Chris Wade26Sep 17, 2016 · Established
- L vs Adriano Martins18Oct 3, 2015 · Building
- W vs Leo Kuntz8May 23, 2015 · Unproven
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Makhachev has the striking edge (+13).
Where Muhammad attacks (green = high volume) vs where Makhachev gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Muhammad’s green zones meeting Makhachev’s red zones are the openings.
- Head77%90th1,159
- Body14%57th218
- Leg9%46th130
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head50%90th143
- Body33%64th94
- Leg17%71st50
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing87%1,318
- Clinch5%70
- Ground8%119
- Standing72%206
- Clinch22%62
- Ground7%19
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Belal Muhammad | top 10% of division48.3 | 38% | below division average33.8 | 1,159 |
| Head | Islam Makhachev | around division average26.6 | 51% | top 10% of division15.1 | 344 |
| Body | Belal Muhammad | above division average9.6 | 68% | below division average10.5 | 218 |
| Body | Islam Makhachev | around division average8.8 | 89% | above division average7.7 | 114 |
| Leg | Belal Muhammad | around division average6.0 | 85% | bottom of the division13.8 | 130 |
| Leg | Islam Makhachev | well below average3.2 | 90% | top 29% of division4.6 | 27 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Makhachev has the grappling edge (+21).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 2.046 | 3.141 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 36%46 / 128 | 56%41 / 73 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 90%47 / 52 | 91%21 / 23 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.13 | 1.013 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 3.3 min75:45 | 7.7 min101:28 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 0.8 min18:34 | 1.2 min15:18 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Belal Muhammad | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 5(21%) | 5(18%) |
| by submission | 1(4%) | 13(46%) |
| by decision | 18(75%) | 10(36%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(20%) | 1(100%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
| by decision | 4(80%) | 0(0%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Vicente Luque9y 7mo agoUFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016 · R1 · 1:19
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Adriano Martins10y 8mo agoUFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson · Oct 3, 2015 · R1 · 1:46
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
No clear cardio edge — Muhammad holds steady (+3% per round through round 5) and Makhachev holds steady (+2% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Muhammad lifts to 124% of round-1 output by round 3, Makhachev 126%.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Belal Muhammad | 5.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.27 | 13% | 21 |
| R1 | Islam Makhachev | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.34 | 47% | 18 |
| R2 | Belal Muhammad | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.45 | 23% | 20 |
| R2 | Islam Makhachev | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.29 | 50% | 11 |
| R3 | Belal Muhammad | 7.1 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 0.45 | 29% | 19 |
| R3 | Islam Makhachev | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.36 | 57% | 9 |
| R4 | Belal Muhammad | 6.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.24 | 25% | 5 |
| R4 | Islam Makhachev | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.57 | 64% | 4 |
| R5 | Belal Muhammad | 6.8 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 0.36 | 26% | 5 |
| R5 | Islam Makhachev | 5.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.55 | 46% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.