Compare Joshua Van vs Justin Gaethje — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Flyweight roster (206 fighters). Joshua Van fights at Flyweight; Justin Gaethje at Lightweight — Justin Gaethje’s percentiles are measured against a division they don’t compete in, so read them with that in mind.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Joshua Van | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Top-5 | 2-0 | 7-2 |
| Top-15 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Building | 1-0 | — |
| Unproven | 3-0 | — |
- W vs Tatsuro Taira#384May 9, 2026 · Top-5
- W vs Alexandre PantojaCHAMP100Dec 6, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Brandon Royval#190Jun 28, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Bruno Silva45Jun 7, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Rei Tsuruya15Mar 8, 2025 · Building
- W vs Cody Durden#1463Dec 7, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Edgar Chairez42Sep 14, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Charles Johnson49Jul 13, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Felipe Bunes8Jan 13, 2024 · Unproven
- W vs Kevin Borjas8Nov 11, 2023 · Unproven
- W vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov8Jun 24, 2023 · Unproven
- W vs Ilia TopuriaCHAMP100Jun 14, 2026 · Champion
- W vs Paddy Pimblett#578Jan 24, 2026 · Top-5
- W vs Rafael Fiziev#1172Mar 8, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Max Holloway76Apr 13, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Dustin Poirier#292Jul 29, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Rafael Fiziev#675Mar 18, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Charles OliveiraCHAMP100May 7, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Michael Chandler#481Nov 6, 2021 · Top-5
- L vs Khabib NurmagomedovCHAMP100Oct 24, 2020 · Champion
- W vs Tony Ferguson#195May 9, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Donald Cerrone#485Sep 14, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Edson Barboza#681Mar 30, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs James Vick#1068Aug 25, 2018 · Top-15
- L vs Dustin Poirier#589Apr 14, 2018 · Top-5
- L vs Eddie Alvarez#495Dec 2, 2017 · Champion
- W vs Michael Johnson#578Jul 7, 2017 · Top-5
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.
Where Van attacks (green = high volume) vs where Gaethje gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Van’s green zones meeting Gaethje’s red zones are the openings.
- Head73%99th892
- Body19%91st235
- Leg8%62nd103
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head55%12th766
- Body32%1st437
- Leg13%18th178
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing87%1,070
- Clinch8%94
- Ground5%66
- Standing89%1,230
- Clinch10%132
- Ground1%19
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Joshua Van | elite — top of division77.3 | 51% | bottom of the division53.0 | 892 |
| Head | Justin Gaethje | top 6% of division56.6 | 50% | bottom of the division52.8 | 841 |
| Body | Joshua Van | top 9% of division21.0 | 82% | below division average13.1 | 235 |
| Body | Justin Gaethje | above division average10.4 | 76% | bottom of the division28.6 | 139 |
| Leg | Joshua Van | above division average10.0 | 91% | well below average13.5 | 103 |
| Leg | Justin Gaethje | elite — top of division19.1 | 88% | well below average12.4 | 291 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Van has the grappling edge (+17).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Joshua Van | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 0.88 | 0.34 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 62%8 / 13 | 27%4 / 15 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 76%56 / 74 | 73%22 / 30 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.22 | 0.00 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 1.1 min10:40 | 1.0 min13:17 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 2.3 min22:24 | 0.5 min6:37 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Joshua Van | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 9(53%) | 20(74%) |
| by submission | 2(12%) | 1(4%) |
| by decision | 6(35%) | 6(22%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 1(50%) | 3(60%) |
| by submission | 1(50%) | 2(40%) |
| by decision | 0(0%) | 0(0%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Charles Johnson1y 11mo agoUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024 · R3 · 0:20
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Max Holloway2y 2mo agoUFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · R5 · 4:59
- Last time submittedvs Charles Oliveira4y 1mo agoUFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 7, 2022 · R1 · 3:22
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Van: Van builds (+33% per round through round 3) while Gaethje holds steady (-2% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Van lifts to 219% of round-1 output by round 3, Gaethje 118%.
Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Joshua Van | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 0.02 | 1% | 11 |
| R1 | Justin Gaethje | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 0.07 | 3% | 16 |
| R2 | Joshua Van | 11.8 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 0.08 | 11% | 10 |
| R2 | Justin Gaethje | 7.3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 0.08 | 9% | 12 |
| R3 | Joshua Van | 11.1 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 0.20 | 12% | 9 |
| R3 | Justin Gaethje | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 0.09 | 7% | 9 |
| R4 | Joshua Van | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 1% | 1 |
| R4 | Justin Gaethje | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 0.10 | 11% | 5 |
| R5 | Joshua Van | 17.6 | 17.6 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
| R5 | Justin Gaethje | 6.3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 0.00 | 8% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.