Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

29 fighters · / 100

1
Ben Rothwell
5-1 as underdog · 83%
63.1
2
Derrick Lewis
7-6 as underdog · 54%
48.9
3
Alexander Volkov
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
4
Stipe Miocic
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
5
Mark Hunt
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
6
Marcin Tybura
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
7
Joey Beltran
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
8
Andrei Arlovski
9-12 as underdog · 43%
41.2
9
Mirko Filipovic
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
10
Blagoy Ivanov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
11
Antonio Silva
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
12
Alistair Overeem
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
13
Parker Porter
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
14
Chris Barnett
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
15
Stefan Struve
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
16
Aleksei Oleinik
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
17
Gabriel Gonzaga
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
18
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
19
Frank Mir
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
20
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
21
Lukasz Brzeski
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
22
Daniel Omielanczuk
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
23
Shamil Abdurakhimov
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
24
Jake Collier
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
25
Junior Dos Santos
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
26
Tai Tuivasa
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
27
Walt Harris
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
28
Chase Sherman
1-9 as underdog · 10%
16.5
29
Roy Nelson
0-8 as underdog · 0%
10.9