Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

37 fighters · / 100

1
Ben Rothwell
5-1 as underdog · 83%
63.1
2
Alexander Volkov
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
3
Stipe Miocic
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
4
Derrick Lewis
8-8 as underdog · 50%
46.6
5
Mark Hunt
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
6
Joey Beltran
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
7
Waldo Cortes Acosta
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
8
Andrei Arlovski
9-14 as underdog · 39%
38.2
9
Marcin Tybura
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
10
Mirko Filipovic
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
11
Travis Browne
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
12
Alistair Overeem
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
13
Antonio Silva
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
14
Aleksei Oleinik
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
15
Serghei Spivac
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
16
Blagoy Ivanov
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
17
Chris Barnett
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
18
Parker Porter
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
19
Stefan Struve
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
20
Don'Tale Mayes
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
21
Gabriel Gonzaga
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
22
Frank Mir
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
23
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
24
Austen Lane
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
26
Daniel Omielanczuk
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
27
Anthony Hamilton
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
28
Josh Parisian
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
29
Jared Vanderaa
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
30
Jake Collier
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
31
Shamil Abdurakhimov
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
32
Lukasz Brzeski
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
33
Junior Dos Santos
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
34
Walt Harris
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
35
Tai Tuivasa
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
36
Chase Sherman
1-9 as underdog · 10%
16.5
37
Roy Nelson
0-8 as underdog · 0%
10.9