Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

30 fighters · / 100

1
Fabricio Werdum
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Ben Rothwell
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
3
Derrick Lewis
7-6 as underdog · 54%
48.9
4
Alexander Volkov
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
5
Stipe Miocic
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
6
Mark Hunt
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
7
Marcin Tybura
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
8
Joey Beltran
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
9
Andrei Arlovski
9-12 as underdog · 43%
41.2
10
Blagoy Ivanov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
11
Alistair Overeem
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
12
Antonio Silva
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
13
Stefan Struve
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
14
Mirko Filipovic
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
15
Chris Barnett
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
16
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
17
Parker Porter
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
18
Frank Mir
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
19
Aleksei Oleinik
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
20
Gabriel Gonzaga
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
21
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
22
Junior Dos Santos
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
23
Daniel Omielanczuk
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
24
Lukasz Brzeski
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
Shamil Abdurakhimov
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
26
Jake Collier
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
27
Tai Tuivasa
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
28
Walt Harris
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
29
Chase Sherman
1-9 as underdog · 10%
16.5
30
Roy Nelson
0-8 as underdog · 0%
10.9