MMA Index
Pro
Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

← All stats

Leaderboard

38 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Fabricio Werdum
    Fabricio Werdum
    4-1 as underdog · 80%
    59.0
  2. 2
    Ben Rothwell
    Ben Rothwell
    5-2 as underdog · 71%
    57.4
  3. 3
    Alexander Volkov
    Alexander Volkov
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  4. 4
    Stipe Miocic
    Stipe Miocic
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  5. 5
    Derrick Lewis
    Derrick Lewis
    8-8 as underdog · 50%
    46.6
  6. 6
    Mark Hunt
    Mark Hunt
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  7. 7
    Joey Beltran
    Joey Beltran
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  8. 8
    Waldo Cortes Acosta
    Waldo Cortes Acosta
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  9. 9
    Andrei Arlovski
    Andrei Arlovski
    9-14 as underdog · 39%
    38.2
  10. 10
    Marcin Tybura
    Marcin Tybura
    4-6 as underdog · 40%
    37.9
  11. 11
    Travis Browne
    Travis Browne
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  12. 12
    Antonio Silva
    Antonio Silva
    3-5 as underdog · 38%
    35.9
  13. 13
    Alistair Overeem
    Alistair Overeem
    3-5 as underdog · 38%
    35.9
  14. 14
    Aleksei Oleinik
    Aleksei Oleinik
    4-7 as underdog · 36%
    35.4
  15. 15
    Stefan Struve
    Stefan Struve
    4-8 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  16. 16
    Mirko Filipovic
    Mirko Filipovic
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  17. 17
    Serghei Spivac
    Serghei Spivac
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  18. 18
    Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
    Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  19. 19
    Chris Barnett
    Chris Barnett
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  20. 20
    Blagoy Ivanov
    Blagoy Ivanov
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  21. 21
    Parker Porter
    Parker Porter
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  22. 22
    Frank Mir
    Frank Mir
    3-7 as underdog · 30%
    30.8
  23. 23
    Don'Tale Mayes
    Don'Tale Mayes
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  24. 24
    Gabriel Gonzaga
    Gabriel Gonzaga
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  25. 25
    Junior Dos Santos
    Junior Dos Santos
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6
  26. 26
    Jairzinho Rozenstruik
    Jairzinho Rozenstruik
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6
  27. 27
    Austen Lane
    Austen Lane
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  28. 28
    Daniel Omielanczuk
    Daniel Omielanczuk
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  29. 29
    Anthony Hamilton
    Anthony Hamilton
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  30. 30
    Josh Parisian
    Josh Parisian
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  31. 31
    Jared Vanderaa
    Jared Vanderaa
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  32. 32
    Jake Collier
    Jake Collier
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  33. 33
    Shamil Abdurakhimov
    Shamil Abdurakhimov
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  34. 34
    Lukasz Brzeski
    Lukasz Brzeski
    1-6 as underdog · 14%
    21.0
  35. 35
    Walt Harris
    Walt Harris
    1-6 as underdog · 14%
    21.0
  36. 36
    Tai Tuivasa
    Tai Tuivasa
    1-6 as underdog · 14%
    21.0
  37. 37
    Chase Sherman
    Chase Sherman
    1-9 as underdog · 10%
    16.5
  38. 38
    Roy Nelson
    Roy Nelson
    0-8 as underdog · 0%
    10.9