Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

27 fighters · / 100

1
Fabricio Werdum
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Ben Rothwell
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
3
Stipe Miocic
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
4
Mark Hunt
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
5
Joey Beltran
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
6
Andrei Arlovski
9-14 as underdog · 39%
38.2
7
Travis Browne
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
8
Antonio Silva
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
9
Alistair Overeem
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
10
Aleksei Oleinik
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
11
Stefan Struve
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
12
Blagoy Ivanov
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
13
Mirko Filipovic
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
14
Parker Porter
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
15
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
16
Frank Mir
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
17
Gabriel Gonzaga
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
18
Junior Dos Santos
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
19
Daniel Omielanczuk
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
20
Anthony Hamilton
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
21
Josh Parisian
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
22
Jared Vanderaa
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
23
Jake Collier
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
24
Shamil Abdurakhimov
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
25
Walt Harris
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
26
Chase Sherman
1-9 as underdog · 10%
16.5
27
Roy Nelson
0-8 as underdog · 0%
10.9