Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

33 fighters · / 100

1
Jan Blachowicz
10-3 as underdog · 77%
66.5
2
Anthony Perosh
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
3
Khalil Rountree Jr.
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
4
Corey Anderson
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
5
Nikita Krylov
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
6
Volkan Oezdemir
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
7
Glover Teixeira
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
8
Alonzo Menifield
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
9
Cyrille Diabate
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
10
Francimar Barroso
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
11
Anthony Smith
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
12
Paul Craig
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
13
Ovince Saint Preux
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
14
Ed Herman
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
15
Ryan Bader
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
16
Mauricio Rua
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
17
Kyle Kingsbury
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
18
Ilir Latifi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
19
Igor Pokrajac
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
20
Johnny Walker
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
21
Ion Cutelaba
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
22
Jimi Manuwa
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
23
Dan Henderson
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
24
Rogerio Nogueira
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
25
Devin Clark
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
26
Patrick Cummins
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
27
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
28
Brendson Ribeiro
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
29
Sam Alvey
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
30
Tito Ortiz
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
31
Sean O'Connell
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
32
Gian Villante
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
33
Alexander Gustafsson
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6