Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

35 fighters · / 100

1
Jan Blachowicz
10-3 as underdog · 77%
66.5
2
Anthony Perosh
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
3
Khalil Rountree Jr.
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
4
Francimar Barroso
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
5
Alonzo Menifield
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
6
Ryan Spann
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
7
Corey Anderson
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
8
Volkan Oezdemir
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
9
Glover Teixeira
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
10
Nikita Krylov
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
11
Cyrille Diabate
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
12
Paul Craig
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
13
Ed Herman
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
14
Ovince Saint Preux
5-7 as underdog · 42%
39.5
15
Brendson Ribeiro
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
16
Ryan Bader
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
17
Johnny Walker
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
18
Mauricio Rua
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
19
Anthony Smith
5-8 as underdog · 38%
37.1
20
Kyle Kingsbury
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
21
Ilir Latifi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
22
Marcin Prachnio
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
23
Igor Pokrajac
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
24
Ion Cutelaba
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
25
Jimi Manuwa
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
26
Dan Henderson
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
27
Rogerio Nogueira
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
28
Devin Clark
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
29
Sam Alvey
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
30
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
31
Tito Ortiz
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
32
Patrick Cummins
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
33
Gian Villante
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
34
Sean O'Connell
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
35
Alexander Gustafsson
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6