Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

29 fighters · / 100

1
Justin Gaethje
9-3 as underdog · 75%
64.5
2
Charles Oliveira
7-3 as underdog · 70%
59.4
3
Chris Duncan
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
4
Michael Johnson
8-5 as underdog · 62%
54.8
5
Dustin Poirier
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
6
Beneil Dariush
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
7
Diego Ferreira
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
8
Matt Frevola
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
9
Renato Moicano
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
10
Joaquim Silva
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
11
Rafa Garcia
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
12
Dan Hooker
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
13
Vinc Pichel
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
14
Elves Brener
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
15
Drakkar Klose
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
16
Maheshate
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
17
King Green
6-10 as underdog · 38%
36.6
18
Drew Dober
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
19
Kurt Holobaugh
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
20
Jim Miller
6-14 as underdog · 30%
30.5
21
Nasrat Haqparast
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
22
Austin Hubbard
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
23
Jamie Mullarkey
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
24
Thiago Moises
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
25
Terrance McKinney
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
26
Jared Gordon
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
27
Edson Barboza
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
28
Jeremy Stephens
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
29
Michael Chandler
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0