Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

25 fighters · / 100

1
Justin Gaethje
8-3 as underdog · 73%
62.1
2
Charles Oliveira
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
3
Dustin Poirier
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
4
Beneil Dariush
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
5
Michael Johnson
7-5 as underdog · 58%
52.0
6
Diego Ferreira
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
7
Matt Frevola
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
8
Vinc Pichel
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
9
Dan Hooker
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
10
Clay Guida
6-9 as underdog · 40%
38.5
11
Drakkar Klose
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
12
Joaquim Silva
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
13
Kurt Holobaugh
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
14
King Green
6-10 as underdog · 38%
36.6
15
Drew Dober
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
16
Damir Hadzovic
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
17
Nasrat Haqparast
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
18
Jamie Mullarkey
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
19
Jim Miller
6-13 as underdog · 32%
31.8
20
Thiago Moises
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
21
Edson Barboza
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
22
Austin Hubbard
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
23
Michael Chandler
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
24
Jared Gordon
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
Jeremy Stephens
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1