Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Nicolas Dalby
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
2
Belal Muhammad
7-4 as underdog · 64%
55.4
3
Kenny Robertson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
4
Sean Pierson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
5
Daniel Rodriguez
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
6
Li Jingliang
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
7
Carlos Condit
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
8
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
9
Neil Magny
12-10 as underdog · 55%
51.2
10
Diego Sanchez
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Rick Story
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
12
Martin Kampmann
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
13
Brian Ebersole
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
14
Muslim Salikhov
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
15
Patrick Cote
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
16
Anthony Rocco Martin
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
Alex Morono
6-6 as underdog · 50%
45.7
18
Demian Maia
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
19
Leon Edwards
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
20
Thiago Alves
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
21
Siyar Bahadurzada
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
22
Tyron Woodley
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
23
Ramiz Brahimaj
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
24
Robbie Lawler
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
25
Matt Brown
7-9 as underdog · 44%
41.6
26
Mike Pyle
5-7 as underdog · 42%
39.5
27
Mike Perry
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
28
Court McGee
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
29
Niko Price
5-8 as underdog · 38%
37.1
30
Duane Ludwig
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Charlie Brenneman
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Seth Baczynski
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Stephen Thompson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
George Sullivan
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Geoff Neal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Dwight Grant
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Santiago Ponzinibbio
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
38
Nate Diaz
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
39
Phil Rowe
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
40
Randy Brown
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
41
Gilbert Burns
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
42
Jorge Masvidal
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
43
Sergio Moraes
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
44
Dhiego Lima
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
45
Alan Jouban
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
46
Danny Roberts
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
47
Mickey Gall
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Peter Sobotta
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
49
Zak Ottow
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
50
Song Kenan
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1