Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Belal Muhammad
7-4 as underdog · 64%
55.4
2
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
3
Kenny Robertson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
4
Sean Pierson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
5
Carlos Condit
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
6
Alex Morono
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
7
Diego Sanchez
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
8
Rick Story
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
9
Martin Kampmann
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
10
Nicolas Dalby
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
11
Patrick Cote
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
12
Brian Ebersole
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
13
Anthony Rocco Martin
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
14
Neil Magny
10-10 as underdog · 50%
47.1
15
Demian Maia
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
16
Tyron Woodley
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
17
Leon Edwards
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
18
Siyar Bahadurzada
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
19
Thiago Alves
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
20
Robbie Lawler
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
21
Niko Price
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
22
Matt Brown
7-9 as underdog · 44%
41.6
23
Mike Pyle
5-7 as underdog · 42%
39.5
24
Santiago Ponzinibbio
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
25
Mike Perry
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
26
Stephen Thompson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
27
Duane Ludwig
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
28
Carlston Harris
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
29
George Sullivan
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
30
Adam Fugitt
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Seth Baczynski
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Mickey Gall
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Geoff Neal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
Charlie Brenneman
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Nate Diaz
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
36
Randy Brown
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
37
Jorge Masvidal
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
38
Court McGee
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
39
Gilbert Burns
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
40
Peter Sobotta
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
41
Alan Jouban
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
42
Zak Ottow
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
43
Danny Roberts
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
44
Dhiego Lima
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
45
Tim Means
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
46
Sergio Moraes
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
47
Phil Rowe
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Ben Saunders
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
49
Bryan Barberena
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
50
John Howard
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1