Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Daniel Rodriguez
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Nicolas Dalby
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
3
Belal Muhammad
7-4 as underdog · 64%
55.4
4
Sean Pierson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
5
Kenny Robertson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
7
Li Jingliang
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
8
Neil Magny
11-10 as underdog · 52%
49.2
9
Diego Sanchez
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
10
Carlos Condit
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Thiago Alves
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
12
Martin Kampmann
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
13
Patrick Cote
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
14
Brian Ebersole
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
15
Anthony Rocco Martin
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
16
Muslim Salikhov
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
Dan Hardy
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
18
Alex Morono
6-6 as underdog · 50%
45.7
19
Demian Maia
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
20
Matt Brown
9-10 as underdog · 47%
44.8
21
Rick Story
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
22
Ramiz Brahimaj
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
23
Siyar Bahadurzada
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
24
Leon Edwards
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
25
Tyron Woodley
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
26
Robbie Lawler
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
27
John Howard
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
28
Mike Perry
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
29
Santiago Ponzinibbio
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
30
Court McGee
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
31
Mike Pyle
5-8 as underdog · 38%
37.1
32
Niko Price
5-8 as underdog · 38%
37.1
33
Stephen Thompson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
George Sullivan
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Seth Baczynski
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Duane Ludwig
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Dwight Grant
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
38
Geoff Neal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
39
Charlie Brenneman
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
40
Phil Rowe
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
41
Nate Diaz
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
42
Ben Saunders
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
43
Randy Brown
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
44
Jorge Masvidal
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
45
Gilbert Burns
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
46
Sergio Moraes
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
47
Mickey Gall
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Song Kenan
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
49
Danny Roberts
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
50
Adam Fugitt
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1