Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Belal Muhammad
7-4 as underdog · 64%
55.4
2
Sean Pierson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
3
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
4
Kenny Robertson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
5
Diego Sanchez
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
6
Thiago Alves
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
7
Carlos Condit
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
8
Alex Morono
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
9
Nicolas Dalby
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
10
Martin Kampmann
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
11
Brian Ebersole
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
12
Dan Hardy
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
13
Patrick Cote
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
14
Anthony Rocco Martin
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
15
Neil Magny
10-10 as underdog · 50%
47.1
16
Demian Maia
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
17
Matt Brown
9-10 as underdog · 47%
44.8
18
Rick Story
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
19
Leon Edwards
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
20
Tyron Woodley
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
21
Siyar Bahadurzada
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
22
Robbie Lawler
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
23
Niko Price
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
24
John Howard
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
25
Mike Perry
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
26
Santiago Ponzinibbio
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
27
Mike Pyle
5-8 as underdog · 38%
37.1
28
Geoff Neal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
29
Seth Baczynski
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
30
Mickey Gall
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Stephen Thompson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Duane Ludwig
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Adam Fugitt
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
George Sullivan
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Carlston Harris
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Charlie Brenneman
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Nate Diaz
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
38
Ben Saunders
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
39
Jorge Masvidal
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
40
Randy Brown
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
41
Court McGee
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
42
Gilbert Burns
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
43
Danny Roberts
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
44
Zak Ottow
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
45
Phil Rowe
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
46
Paulo Thiago
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
47
Tim Means
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Alan Jouban
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
49
Dhiego Lima
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
50
Sergio Moraes
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1