Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway — Welterweight at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Rounds
- 5 × 5 min
- Venue
- T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- McGregor26%+270
- Holloway74%-340
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 32priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
14 bouts · vs Holloway
- KO/TKO8
- Submission0
- Decision2
- KO/TKO2
- Submission2
- Decision0
- Average8:02
- vs Orthodox7-1
- vs Southpaw3-3
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach1-1
- vs Shorter reach7-2
32 bouts · vs McGregor
- KO/TKO11
- Submission2
- Decision10
- KO/TKO1
- Submission1
- Decision7
- Average16:39
- vs Orthodox19-6
- vs Southpaw2-3
- vs Switch2-0
- vs Longer reach14-7
- vs Shorter reach3-0
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Conor McGregor | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 880% | 1148% |
| by submission | 00% | 29% |
| by decision | 220% | 1043% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 125% | 111% |
| by submission | 250% | 111% |
| by decision | 00% | 778% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 4:05 | R3 2:31 |
| Finishes used in avg | 8 | 13 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Donald Cerrone6y 4mo agoUFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020 · R1 · 0:40
- Last time KO'dvs Dustin Poirier4y 10mo agoUFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021 · R1 · 5:00* between-rounds stoppage · not a clean KO
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedvs Khabib Nurmagomedov7y 7mo agoUFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 6, 2018 · R4 · 3:03
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Justin Gaethje2y 1mo agoUFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · R5 · 4:59
- Last time KO'dvs Ilia Topuria1y 7mo agoUFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024 · R3 · 1:34
- Last submission scoredvs Cub Swanson11y 1mo agoUFC on FOX: Machida vs. Rockhold · Apr 18, 2015 · R3 · 3:58
- Last time submittedvs Dustin Poirier14y 3mo agoUFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit · Feb 4, 2012 · R1 · 3:23
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Conor McGregor | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Top-5 | 2-2 | 9-3 |
| Top-15 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-1 | — |
| Contender-level | — | 1-0 |
| Building | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Unproven | — | 6-1 |
- L vs Dustin Poirier#190Jul 10, 2021 · Top-5
- L vs Dustin Poirier#287Jan 23, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Donald Cerrone#1363Jan 18, 2020 · Top-15
- L vs Khabib NurmagomedovCHAMP100Oct 6, 2018 · Champion
- W vs Eddie AlvarezCHAMP100Nov 12, 2016 · Champion
- W vs Nate Diaz45Aug 20, 2016 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Nate Diaz45Mar 5, 2016 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Jose AldoCHAMP100Dec 12, 2015 · Champion
- W vs Chad Mendes#190Jul 11, 2015 · Top-5
- W vs Dennis Siver#1068Jan 18, 2015 · Top-15
- W vs Dustin Poirier#578Sep 27, 2014 · Top-5
- W vs Diego Brandao#1560Jul 19, 2014 · Top-15
- W vs Max Holloway18Aug 17, 2013 · Building
- W vs Marcus Brimage18Apr 6, 2013 · Building
- L vs Charles Oliveira#384Mar 7, 2026 · Top-5
- W vs Dustin Poirier#675Jul 19, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Ilia TopuriaCHAMP100Oct 26, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Justin Gaethje#287Apr 13, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Chan Sung Jung#872Aug 26, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Arnold Allen#481Apr 15, 2023 · Top-5
- L vs Alexander VolkanovskiCHAMP100Jul 2, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Yair Rodriguez#384Nov 13, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Calvin Kattar#675Jan 16, 2021 · Top-15
- L vs Alexander VolkanovskiCHAMP100Jul 11, 2020 · Champion
- L vs Alexander Volkanovski#190Dec 14, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Frankie Edgar#481Jul 27, 2019 · Top-5
- L vs Dustin Poirier#384Apr 13, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Brian Ortega#190Dec 8, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Jose Aldo#190Dec 2, 2017 · Top-5
- W vs Jose AldoCHAMP100Jun 3, 2017 · Champion
- W vs Anthony Pettis#578Dec 10, 2016 · Top-5
- W vs Ricardo Lamas#578Jun 4, 2016 · Top-5
- W vs Jeremy Stephens#872Dec 12, 2015 · Top-15
- W vs Charles Oliveira#773Aug 23, 2015 · Top-15
- W vs Cub Swanson#578Apr 18, 2015 · Top-5
- W vs Cole Miller45Feb 14, 2015 · Contender-level
- W vs Akira Corassani18Oct 4, 2014 · Building
- W vs Clay Collard8Aug 23, 2014 · Unproven
- W vs Andre Fili8Apr 26, 2014 · Unproven
- W vs Will Chope8Jan 4, 2014 · Unproven
- L vs Conor McGregor8Aug 17, 2013 · Unproven
- L vs Dennis Bermudez18May 25, 2013 · Building
- W vs Leonard Garcia8Dec 29, 2012 · Unproven
- W vs Justin Lawrence8Aug 11, 2012 · Unproven
- W vs Pat Schilling8Jun 1, 2012 · Unproven
- L vs Dustin Poirier18Feb 4, 2012 · Building
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Conor McGregor | 55.8top 8% of division | 44% | 48.5well below average | 419 |
| Head | Max Holloway | 67.0elite — top of division | 40% | 43.9well below average | 2,381 |
| Body | Conor McGregor | 13.6top 23% of division | 65% | 11.7below division average | 102 |
| Body | Max Holloway | 25.3elite — top of division | 74% | 9.74around division average | 899 |
| Leg | Conor McGregor | 10.4above division average | 79% | 9.60below division average | 78 |
| Leg | Max Holloway | 11.3top 29% of division | 77% | 15.5bottom of the division | 401 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Max Holloway | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 5 / 8 |
| Takedown accuracy | 56% | 53% | 5/9 · 8/15 |
| Takedown defense | 67% | 81% | stopped 22/33 · 136/167 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 / 10 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 1.8 min | 0.8 min | 13:51 · 29:08 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 4.1 min | 1.7 min | 30:57 · 61:20 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Holloway: Holloway actually builds to 158% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while McGregor actually builds to 141% — a 17-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Conor McGregor | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 0.04 | 10% | 14 |
| R1 | Max Holloway | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 0.01 | 3% | 32 |
| R2 | Conor McGregor | 5.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 0.09 | 9% | 8 |
| R2 | Max Holloway | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 0.01 | 5% | 29 |
| R3 | Conor McGregor | 6.6 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 0.20 | 32% | 3 |
| R3 | Max Holloway | 8.3 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 0.05 | 10% | 27 |
| R4 | Conor McGregor | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 0.00 | 2% | 2 |
| R4 | Max Holloway | 10.3 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 0.07 | 5% | 12 |
| R5 | Conor McGregor | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.20 | 9% | 1 |
| R5 | Max Holloway | 7.8 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 0.04 | 5% | 11 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Conor has 4y 7mo more layoff
- Conor McGregor, Dillon Danis, Islam Makhachev, and others react after Paris Saint-Germain crushes Arsenal’s Champions League dreamslowkickmma · May 30, 2026
- Conor McGregor predicted how he’d KO Jose Aldo one year before 13-second UFC fightbloodyelbow · May 30, 2026
- Look: Fighter Has Conor McGregor, Tyson, Ali, Jon Jones and Fury Tattooed on His Leglowkickmma · May 30, 2026
- Conor McGregor’s coach shares initial thoughts on Max Holloway rematch: ‘It’s a tough fight’bloodyelbow · May 29, 2026
- Former UFC double champ highlights biggest concern for Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2lowkickmma · May 29, 2026
- Joe Rogan argues Max Holloway will benefit from Conor McGregor’s weight stipulation: ‘Even better’bloodyelbow · May 27, 2026