Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Magomed Ankalaev

edge

Bogdan Guskov

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A

78th

1.9

+10

A+

88th

2.5

Defense

A

71st

56%

+41

D

30th

44%

KO power

C

10 KO

0.4 KD

+26

A

15 KO

0.7 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Ankalaev

Ankalaev has the bigger wrestling edge on Guskov (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

C

48th

0.8

+36

F

12th

0.0

Takedown accuracy22%—

Takedown defense

88%

57%

Control time

A

73rd

4.1 min

+28

C

46th

2.1 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Guskov ▸

Guskov is the bigger submission threat on Ankalaev

Submission attempts

D

26th

0.0

+52

A

78th

0.7

Sub win rate

C

53rd

0%

0 subs

Even

C

58th

17%

3 subs

Submission defense

C

46th

5%

Even

C

46th

5%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Guskov ▸

Guskov is more likely to finish Ankalaev

Finish rate

D

33rd

50%

+25

C

58th

100%

KO durability

B

68th

7%

Even

B

68th

0%

Submission defense

D

41st

7%

+11

D

30th

20%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over five rounds

Work rate / min — full fight

6.1

6.4

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.9

6.4

Pace trend+13%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Guskov ▸

Guskov is in better recent form than Ankalaev

Win rate (career)

86%

80%

After a win

92%

100%

Last 5

75%

100%

Win streakL1—

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Ankalaev

Ankalaev has faced the tougher schedule vs Guskov

Schedule strength

76%

60%

Win quality

80%

64%

Ranked opponents

10

4

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Common opps (3)2-0-11-1-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

Guskov ▸

Guskov is fresher and more active than Ankalaev

Last bout

10mo

7mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

Even

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Even physically · Closed-stance matchup

Magomed AnkalaevvsBogdan Guskov

34

Age

1y

younger

33

6'3"

191cm

Height

Even

6'3"

191cm

75"

191cm

Reach

1"

reach

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Magomed AnkalaevBogdan Guskov

Percentile

Striking/min3.654.57

Accuracy%52%55%

Defense%56%44%

Takedowns/150.80.0

TD defense%87%57%

Submissions/150.00.7

Career rate as a percentile within the light heavyweight (226 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 12m ago

Magomed Ankalaev

Consensus

82%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Ankalaev

Kalshi83¢bestSportsbook-55081%

Bogdan Guskov

Consensus

19%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Guskov

Kalshi19¢bestSportsbook+41019%

Ankalaev 82%19% Guskov

$57k vol · $49k OI$50k vol · $49k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Magomed Ankalaev

53%-157

10%+750

16%+435

Bogdan Guskov

12%+600

3%+2500

5%+1500

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Magomed Ankalaev

53%-157

10%+750

16%+435

Bogdan Guskov

12%+600

3%+2500

5%+1500

Total rounds

Line · 3.5

Over32%+188
Under68%-265

Goes the distance

Yes24%+300
No76%-435

UFC betting history

Career

AnkalaevMagomed Ankalaev

GuskovBogdan Guskov

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi82%83%1 pt

Sportsbook79%81%2 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

AnkalaevMagomed Ankalaev

Stat

GuskovBogdan Guskov

6

1

KO / TKO

3

0

1

Submission

1

6

0

Decision

0

11:29

Avg fight time

5:42

Magomed Ankalaev’s splits

vs Guskov

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Bogdan Guskov’s splits

vs Ankalaev

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

3-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Magomed AnkalaevvsBogdan Guskov

34

Age

1y

younger

33

6'3"

191cm

Height

Even

6'3"

191cm

75"

191cm

Reach

1"

reach

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

66th

Even

B

64th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Ankalaev’s offensevsGuskov’s defense

Where Ankalaev attacks (green = high volume) vs where Guskov gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Ankalaev’s green zones meeting Guskov’s red zones are the openings.

Magomed AnkalaevOffense

Head56%53rd383
Body27%77th189
Leg17%59th118

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Bogdan GuskovDefense

Head65%37th116
Body12%54th22
Leg22%29th40

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Ankalaev — by position

71%Standing

Standing71%490
Clinch11%73
Ground18%127

Guskov — absorbed by position

80%Standing

Standing80%143
Clinch4%8
Ground15%27

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Ankalaev’s offensevsGuskov’s defense

Head

C

53rd

30.7

+16

D

37th

38.1

Body

A

77th

14.0

+23

C

54th

9.0

Leg

B

59th

9.2

+30

D

29th

11.2

Guskov’s offensevsAnkalaev’s defense

Head

A

82nd

46.0

+8

A+

91st

16.8

Body

D

34th

6.6

+19

C

53rd

9.2

Leg

C

49th

6.8

+42

F

7th

16.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Magomed Ankalaev	around division average30.7	42%	top 9% of division16.8	383
Head	Bogdan Guskov	top 18% of division46.0	53%	below division average38.1	175
Body	Magomed Ankalaev	top 23% of division14.0	74%	around division average9.2	189
Body	Bogdan Guskov	below division average6.6	90%	around division average9.0	9
Leg	Magomed Ankalaev	above division average9.2	91%	bottom of the division16.0	118
Leg	Bogdan Guskov	around division average6.8	88%	well below average11.2	15

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Magomed Ankalaev

Bogdan Guskov

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

56th

Even

C

57th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

50th

0.8

Even

C

46th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

D

30th

22%

10/45

—

Takedown defense

A

78th

88%

21/24

57%

4/7

Submission threat

C

52nd

0.0

+21

A

74th

0.7

Control time

A

71st

4.1 min

+19

C

51st

2.1 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Magomed Ankalaev	Bogdan Guskov
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.810	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	22%10 / 45	—0 / 0
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	88%21 / 24	57%4 / 7
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.72
Control time / 15 (min)career total	4.1 min51:41	2.1 min6:14
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.5 min6:44	3.4 min9:44

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Magomed Ankalaev

86

Schedule Score

Bogdan Guskov

61

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

186 min

15 bouts

Octagon time

142 min

more

44 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

76%

60%

Win quality

80%

64%

Ranked opponents

10

4

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Magomed Ankalaev	Bogdan Guskov
Champion	1-1-1	0-0-1
Top-5	5-0	1-1
Ranked 6–15	3-1, 1 NC	1-0
Building	—	1-0
Unproven	3-0	1-0

Magomed Ankalaev — bouts

Bogdan Guskov — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Magomed Ankalaev

Bogdan Guskov

Ankalaev — last 5

recent → old

Guskov — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-1

4-0-1

Current streak

L1

—

Ranked opps

5 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

10 mo

8 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Magomed Ankalaev

Bogdan Guskov

Post-result bounce

SituationAnkalaev Guskov

After a loss

1-0100%

After a win

10-191%

3-0100%

Camp length

SituationAnkalaev Guskov

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

6-0100%

1-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

6-186%

2-0100%

Title fights

SituationAnkalaev Guskov

All title fightschallenger or champ

1-150%

—

As championbelt defenses

0-10%

—

As challengerfor the belt

1-0100%

—

Rematches

SituationAnkalaev Guskov

All rematchesany repeat opponent

1-150%

—

Encore boutswon the first

1-150%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Magomed Ankalaev

Bogdan Guskov

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Ankalaev10W–2L by finish · 60% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Guskov18W–2L by finish · 71% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑50%·Guskov

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑50%·Guskov

F

11th

50%

+71

A

82nd

100%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

45%

5%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A

78th

5%

Even

A

77th

5%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

C

58th

5%

Even

C

58th

5%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Magomed Ankalaev	Bogdan Guskov
Wins
by KO / TKO	10(50%)	15(83%)
by submission	0(0%)	3(17%)
by decision	10(50%)	0(0%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(50%)	1(33%)
by submission	1(50%)	1(33%)
by decision	0(0%)	1(33%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Magomed Ankalaev

vs

Bogdan Guskov

40%

6 KO/TKO in 15 bouts

Knockout rate

50%

3 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

7

1.9 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

4

2.3 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

1.7 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Magomed AnkalaevFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Alex Pereira9 months ago
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Oct 4, 2025 · R1 · 1:20
Last time submitted
vs Paul Craig8y 4mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Mar 17, 2018 · R3 · 4:59

Bogdan GuskovFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Volkan Oezdemir2y 10mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 2, 2023 · R1 · 3:46

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Magomed Ankalaev

142%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Bogdan Guskov

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Ankalaev lifts to 142% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Guskov hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Ankalaev ▲ BUILDS

GuskovOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Ankalaev

Guskovlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Ankalaev

Guskovattempts / min

Control time

Ankalaev

Guskov% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Magomed Ankalaev	4.2	3.4	3.0	0.11	11%	15
R1	Bogdan Guskov	3.0	2.9	3.7	0.00	4%	6
R2	Magomed Ankalaev	5.6	4.1	2.9	0.14	27%	11
R2	Bogdan Guskov	9.8	8.0	2.7	0.00	44%	3
R3	Magomed Ankalaev	5.8	3.6	2.4	0.37	28%	9
R3	Bogdan Guskov	5.4	5.4	9.6	0.00	0%	1
R4	Magomed Ankalaev	7.6	3.3	1.2	0.60	62%	3
R4	Bogdan Guskov	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Magomed Ankalaev	7.1	3.5	1.4	0.40	59%	3
R5	Bogdan Guskov	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.