Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

19 fighters · / 100

1
Brian Ortega
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
2
Darren Elkins
9-8 as underdog · 53%
49.1
3
Cub Swanson
8-7 as underdog · 53%
49.0
4
Nate Landwehr
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
5
Edson Barboza
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
6
Kaan Ofli
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
7
Josh Emmett
6-6 as underdog · 50%
45.7
8
Julian Erosa
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
9
Giga Chikadze
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
10
Kyle Nelson
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
11
Jeremy Stephens
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
12
Andre Fili
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
13
Yair Rodriguez
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
14
Arnold Allen
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
15
Charles Oliveira
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
16
Dan Ige
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
17
Calvin Kattar
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
18
Max Holloway
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
19
Lucas Almeida
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1