Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

37 fighters · / 100

1
Brian Ortega
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
2
Darren Elkins
9-8 as underdog · 53%
49.1
3
Cub Swanson
8-7 as underdog · 53%
49.0
4
Chan Sung Jung
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
5
Nate Landwehr
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
6
Steven Siler
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
7
Akira Corassani
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
8
Kaan Ofli
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
9
Edson Barboza
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
10
Pablo Garza
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
11
Bill Algeo
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
12
Josh Emmett
6-6 as underdog · 50%
45.7
13
Julian Erosa
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
14
Giga Chikadze
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
15
Kyle Nelson
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
16
Gabriel Benitez
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
17
Godofredo Pepey
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
18
Damon Jackson
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
19
Jeremy Stephens
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
20
Andre Fili
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
21
Yair Rodriguez
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
22
Arnold Allen
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
23
Sheymon Moraes
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
24
Steven Peterson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
25
Darrick Minner
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
26
Charles Oliveira
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
27
Daniel Pineda
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
28
Makwan Amirkhani
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
29
Ricardo Lamas
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
30
Dan Ige
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
31
Alex Caceres
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
32
Calvin Kattar
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
33
Max Holloway
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
34
Lucas Almeida
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
35
Sam Sicilia
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
36
Kyle Bochniak
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
37
Charles Rosa
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1