Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

34 fighters · / 100

1
Brian Ortega
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
2
Cub Swanson
8-7 as underdog · 53%
49.0
3
Chan Sung Jung
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
4
Giga Chikadze
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
5
Nate Landwehr
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
6
Akira Corassani
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
7
Edson Barboza
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
8
Steven Siler
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
9
Pablo Garza
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
10
Darren Elkins
8-8 as underdog · 50%
46.6
11
Josh Emmett
6-6 as underdog · 50%
45.7
12
Julian Erosa
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
13
Damon Jackson
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
14
Kyle Nelson
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
15
Gabriel Benitez
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
16
Andre Fili
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
17
Jeremy Stephens
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
18
Arnold Allen
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
19
Sheymon Moraes
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
20
Yair Rodriguez
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
21
Charles Oliveira
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
22
Steven Peterson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
23
GP
Godofredo Pepey
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
24
Darrick Minner
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
25
Daniel Pineda
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
26
Ricardo Lamas
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
27
Makwan Amirkhani
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
28
Alex Caceres
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
29
Max Holloway
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
30
Dan Ige
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
31
Sam Sicilia
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
32
Calvin Kattar
2-6 as underdog · 25%
27.6
33
Kyle Bochniak
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
34
Charles Rosa
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1