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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Chris Weidman
    Chris Weidman
    4-1 as underdog · 80%
    59.0
  2. 2
    Sean Strickland
    Sean Strickland
    4-1 as underdog · 80%
    59.0
  3. 3
    Krzysztof Jotko
    Krzysztof Jotko
    4-1 as underdog · 80%
    59.0
  4. 4
    Brendan Allen
    Brendan Allen
    5-2 as underdog · 71%
    57.4
  5. 5
    Constantinos Philippou
    Constantinos Philippou
    5-2 as underdog · 71%
    57.4
  6. 6
    Yoel Romero
    Yoel Romero
    6-3 as underdog · 67%
    56.2
  7. 7
    Robert Whittaker
    Robert Whittaker
    6-3 as underdog · 67%
    56.2
  8. 8
    Daniel Kelly
    Daniel Kelly
    6-4 as underdog · 60%
    52.2
  9. 9
    Tim Boetsch
    Tim Boetsch
    7-5 as underdog · 58%
    52.0
  10. 10
    Derek Brunson
    Derek Brunson
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  11. 11
    Darren Stewart
    Darren Stewart
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  12. 12
    Andre Muniz
    Andre Muniz
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  13. 13
    BS
    Brad Scott
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  14. 14
    Yushin Okami
    Yushin Okami
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  15. 15
    Uriah Hall
    Uriah Hall
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  16. 16
    CB Dollaway
    CB Dollaway
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  17. 17
    Roman Dolidze
    Roman Dolidze
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  18. 18
    Chris Leben
    Chris Leben
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  19. 19
    Chris Curtis
    Chris Curtis
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  20. 20
    Brunno Ferreira
    Brunno Ferreira
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  21. 21
    Cody Brundage
    Cody Brundage
    5-6 as underdog · 45%
    42.1
  22. 22
    Jared Cannonier
    Jared Cannonier
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  23. 23
    David Branch
    David Branch
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  24. 24
    Chris Camozzi
    Chris Camozzi
    4-6 as underdog · 40%
    37.9
  25. 25
    Roman Kopylov
    Roman Kopylov
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  26. 26
    Thiago Santos
    Thiago Santos
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  27. 27
    Rafael Natal
    Rafael Natal
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  28. 28
    Abus Magomedov
    Abus Magomedov
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  29. 29
    Paulo Costa
    Paulo Costa
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  30. 30
    JunYong Park
    JunYong Park
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  31. 31
    Alessio Di Chirico
    Alessio Di Chirico
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  32. 32
    Dan Henderson
    Dan Henderson
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  33. 33
    Jack Hermansson
    Jack Hermansson
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  34. 34
    Andre Petroski
    Andre Petroski
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  35. 35
    Gerald Meerschaert
    Gerald Meerschaert
    7-14 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  36. 36
    Nate Marquardt
    Nate Marquardt
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  37. 37
    Brad Tavares
    Brad Tavares
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  38. 38
    Kelvin Gastelum
    Kelvin Gastelum
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  39. 39
    Maki Pitolo
    Maki Pitolo
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  40. 40
    Sedriques Dumas
    Sedriques Dumas
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  41. 41
    Trevor Smith
    Trevor Smith
    3-7 as underdog · 30%
    30.8
  42. 42
    Jamie Pickett
    Jamie Pickett
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  43. 43
    Michael Bisping
    Michael Bisping
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  44. 44
    John Phillips
    John Phillips
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  45. 45
    Thales Leites
    Thales Leites
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  46. 46
    Mark Munoz
    Mark Munoz
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  47. 47
    Eric Spicely
    Eric Spicely
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  48. 48
    Garreth McLellan
    Garreth McLellan
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  49. 49
    Dustin Stoltzfus
    Dustin Stoltzfus
    2-7 as underdog · 22%
    25.5
  50. 50
    Sam Alvey
    Sam Alvey
    2-8 as underdog · 20%
    23.7