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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

40 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Krzysztof Jotko
    Krzysztof Jotko
    4-1 as underdog · 80%
    59.0
  2. 2
    Constantinos Philippou
    Constantinos Philippou
    5-2 as underdog · 71%
    57.4
  3. 3
    Yoel Romero
    Yoel Romero
    6-3 as underdog · 67%
    56.2
  4. 4
    Daniel Kelly
    Daniel Kelly
    6-4 as underdog · 60%
    52.2
  5. 5
    Tim Boetsch
    Tim Boetsch
    7-5 as underdog · 58%
    52.0
  6. 6
    Derek Brunson
    Derek Brunson
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  7. 7
    Darren Stewart
    Darren Stewart
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  8. 8
    Alan Belcher
    Alan Belcher
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  9. 9
    Jorge Rivera
    Jorge Rivera
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  10. 10
    BS
    Brad Scott
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  11. 11
    Yushin Okami
    Yushin Okami
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  12. 12
    CB Dollaway
    CB Dollaway
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  13. 13
    Uriah Hall
    Uriah Hall
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  14. 14
    Ed Herman
    Ed Herman
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  15. 15
    Kendall Grove
    Kendall Grove
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  16. 16
    Chael Sonnen
    Chael Sonnen
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  17. 17
    Chris Leben
    Chris Leben
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  18. 18
    David Branch
    David Branch
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  19. 19
    Chris Camozzi
    Chris Camozzi
    4-6 as underdog · 40%
    37.9
  20. 20
    Rafael Natal
    Rafael Natal
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  21. 21
    Thiago Santos
    Thiago Santos
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  22. 22
    Tom Lawlor
    Tom Lawlor
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  23. 23
    Alessio Di Chirico
    Alessio Di Chirico
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  24. 24
    Nate Marquardt
    Nate Marquardt
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  25. 25
    Michael Bisping
    Michael Bisping
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  26. 26
    Dan Henderson
    Dan Henderson
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  27. 27
    Maki Pitolo
    Maki Pitolo
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  28. 28
    Trevor Smith
    Trevor Smith
    3-7 as underdog · 30%
    30.8
  29. 29
    Jamie Pickett
    Jamie Pickett
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  30. 30
    Thales Leites
    Thales Leites
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  31. 31
    Mark Munoz
    Mark Munoz
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  32. 32
    Alessio Sakara
    Alessio Sakara
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  33. 33
    Eric Spicely
    Eric Spicely
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  34. 34
    John Phillips
    John Phillips
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  35. 35
    Garreth McLellan
    Garreth McLellan
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  36. 36
    Sam Alvey
    Sam Alvey
    2-8 as underdog · 20%
    23.7
  37. 37
    Jack Marshman
    Jack Marshman
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  38. 38
    Markus Perez
    Markus Perez
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  39. 39
    Denis Tiuliulin
    Denis Tiuliulin
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  40. 40
    Vitor Belfort
    Vitor Belfort
    0-5 as underdog · 0%
    14.6