Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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50 fighters · / 100- 1
Amanda Nunes6-1 as underdog · 86%66.5 - 2
Ben Rothwell5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 3
Rani Yahya7-3 as underdog · 70%59.4 - 4
Krzysztof Jotko4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 5
James Krause4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 6
Yoel Romero6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 7
Sean Pierson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 8
Kenny Robertson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 9
Darren Till4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 10
Michael Trizano4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 11
Alejandro Perez4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 12
Abel Trujillo5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 13
Carlos Condit5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 14
Constantinos Philippou5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 15
Daniel Kelly6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 16
Tim Boetsch7-6 as underdog · 54%48.9 - 17
Raquel Pennington6-5 as underdog · 55%48.7 - 18
Carla Esparza5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 19
Li Jingliang5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 20
Derek Brunson5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 21
Chan Sung Jung5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 22
Anthony Perosh5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 23
Paul Felder5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 24
Eddie Alvarez4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 25
Martin Kampmann4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 26
Francimar Barroso4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 27
Stipe Miocic4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 28
Maryna Moroz4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 29
Bryan Caraway4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 30
Rick Story4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 31
Bill Algeo3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 32
John Lineker3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 33
Nina Nunes3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 34
Pablo Garza3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 35
Zak Cummings3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 36
Akira Corassani3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 37
Nate Maness3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 38
Brian Ebersole3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 39
Leonardo Santos3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 40
Corey Anderson3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 41
TJ Grant3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 42
Claudio Silva3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 43
Marcus Brimage3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 44
Steven Siler3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 45
Diego Sanchez8-8 as underdog · 50%46.6 - 46
Mark Hunt5-5 as underdog · 50%45.1 - 47
Glover Teixeira5-5 as underdog · 50%45.1 - 48
Uriah Hall5-5 as underdog · 50%45.1 - 49
CB Dollaway5-5 as underdog · 50%45.1 - 50
Dustin Ortiz4-4 as underdog · 50%44.3