Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Arnold Allen

edge

Aaron Pico

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange (thin sample)

Effective offense

C

57th

1.5

+39

A+

95th

3.3

Defense

B

68th

60%

+31

D

38th

45%

KO power

D

7 KO

0.3 KD

+12

C

9 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

C

49th

1.2

+50

A+

99th

6.5

Takedown accuracy

A

83rd

60%

+17

B

67th

50%

Takedown defense73%—

Control time

C

44th

2.2 min

+36

A

80th

4.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Allen

Allen is the bigger submission threat on Pico (thin sample)

Submission attempts

C

48th

0.3

+29

F

19th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

65th

19%

4 subs

Even

B

61st

14%

2 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

D

40th

5%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Allen

Allen is more likely to finish Pico (thin sample)

Finish rate

D

41st

33%

Even

C

43rd

0%

KO durability

B

61st

0%

+39

F

22nd

50%

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

D

39th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Pico ▸

Pico pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

4.4

10.4

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.4

10.4

Pace trend-3%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Pico ▸

Pico is in better recent form than Allen (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

80%

50%

After a win82%—

Last 5

40%

80%

Win streakW1W1

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Allen

Allen has faced the tougher schedule vs Pico (thin sample)

Schedule strength

65%

73%

Win quality

64%

37%

Ranked opponents

8

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Allen

Allen is fresher and more active than Pico

Last bout

3mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

Even

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Even physically · Open-stance matchup

Arnold AllenvsAaron Pico

32

Age

2y

younger

30

5'8"

173cm

Height

Even

5'8"

173cm

70"

178cm

Reach

0"

reach

71"

179cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Arnold AllenAaron Pico

Percentile

Striking/min3.526.16

Accuracy%43%53%

Defense%60%45%

Takedowns/151.26.5

TD defense%73%0%

Submissions/150.30.0

Career rate as a percentile within the featherweight (283 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Aaron Pico, from opponents’ full pro records

Aaron Pico

Strong

Opponents' combined record

255-129-1

.664 win rate

Winning-record opponents

15 of 17

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

17

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

AllenArnold Allen

PicoAaron Pico

2-0100%

As pick'em

—

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

AllenArnold Allen

Stat

PicoAaron Pico

2

0

KO / TKO

0

1

2

0

Submission

0

8

3

Decision

1

0

14:28

Avg fight time

9:11

Arnold Allen’s splits

vs Pico

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

2-250%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Aaron Pico’s splits

vs Allen

vs Orthodox

1-150%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-10%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Arnold AllenvsAaron Pico

32

Age

2y

younger

30

5'8"

173cm

Height

Even

5'8"

173cm

70"

178cm

Reach

0"

reach

71"

179cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

54th

Even

B

61st

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Allen’s offensevsPico’s defense

Head

B

68th

38.0

+19

C

49th

33.3

Body

C

49th

9.8

+14

D

35th

12.7

Leg

D

29th

5.2

+19

C

48th

7.9

Pico’s offensevsAllen’s defense

Head

A

81st

44.6

+13

B

68th

27.9

Body

B

62nd

11.7

+19

C

43rd

11.5

Leg

B

58th

8.8

+18

D

40th

9.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Arnold Allen	above division average38.0	39%	above division average27.9	562
Head	Aaron Pico	top 19% of division44.6	48%	around division average33.3	86
Body	Arnold Allen	around division average9.8	66%	below division average11.5	138
Body	Aaron Pico	above division average11.7	80%	below division average12.7	16
Leg	Arnold Allen	well below average5.2	71%	below division average9.5	65
Leg	Aaron Pico	above division average8.8	100%	around division average7.9	11

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Arnold Allen

Aaron Pico

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

60th

+8

B

68th

Pico has the grappling edge (+8).

Takedowns

C

50th

1.2

+35

A

84th

6.5

Takedown accuracy

A

83rd

60%

18/30

+17

B

67th

50%

8/16

Takedown defense

B

70th

73%

57/78

—

Submission threat

C

52nd

0.3

Even

C

56th

0.0

Control time

C

47th

2.2 min

+19

B

66th

4.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Arnold Allen	Aaron Pico
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.218	6.58
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	60%18 / 30	50%8 / 16
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	73%57 / 78	—0 / 0
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.34	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.2 min32:03	4.4 min5:26
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.0 min28:31	0.0 min0:00

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Arnold Allen

68

Schedule Score

Aaron Pico

35

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

217 min

15 bouts

Octagon time

199 min

more

18 min

2 bouts

Schedule strength

65%

73%

Win quality

64%

37%

Ranked opponents

8

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Arnold Allen	Aaron Pico
Champion	0-1	—
Top-5	1-1	0-1
Ranked 6–15	4-1	1-0
Cross-div ranked	2-0	—
Established	1-0	—
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	3-0	—

Arnold Allen — bouts

Aaron Pico — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Arnold Allen

Aaron Pico

Allen — last 5

recent → old

Pico — last 5

recent → old

WPFL

KO R1

Corrales

Feb ’24

WBELLATOR

KO R1

Carvalho

Sep ’23

WBELLATOR

DEC

Gonzalez

Apr ’23

Last 5 record

2-3

4-1

Current streak

W1

Even

W1

Ranked opps

5 of 5

2 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Arnold Allen

Aaron Pico

Post-result bounce

SituationAllen Pico

After a loss

2-167%

1-0100%

After a win

9-282%

—

Camp length

SituationAllen Pico

Typical camp100–180 days

2-167%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

9-282%

1-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Arnold Allen

Aaron Pico

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Allen11W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Pico11W–5L by finish · 64% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑27%·Pico

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑27%·Pico

D

26th

52%

+28

C

53rd

79%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

56%

16%

KO durability

↑21%·Allen

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑21%·Allen

A

73rd

0%

+46

D

27th

21%

Submission defense

↑5%·Allen

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑5%·Allen

A

72nd

0%

+10

B

62nd

5%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Arnold Allen	Aaron Pico
Wins
by KO / TKO	7(33%)	9(64%)
by submission	4(19%)	2(14%)
by decision	10(48%)	3(21%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	4(80%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(20%)
by decision	4(100%)	0(0%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Arnold Allen

vs

Aaron Pico

13%

2 KO/TKO in 15 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 2 bouts

4

0.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

3.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Arnold AllenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Aaron PicoFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Lerone Murphy1 year ago
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025 · R1 · 3:21
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Arnold Allen

108%

R3 vs R1 · 13 bouts reaching R3

Aaron Pico

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Allen lifts to 108% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Pico hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Allen ▼ FADES

PicoOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Allen

Picolanded / min

Takedown attempts

Allen

Picoattempts / min

Control time

Allen

Pico% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Arnold Allen	4.8	3.8	2.8	0.14	15%	15
R1	Aaron Pico	8.0	4.2	3.0	0.84	34%	2
R2	Arnold Allen	3.9	3.3	3.2	0.08	10%	14
R2	Aaron Pico	12.7	9.8	3.8	0.80	14%	1
R3	Arnold Allen	4.5	3.5	2.9	0.17	14%	13
R3	Aaron Pico	10.4	5.8	2.6	1.00	39%	1
R4	Arnold Allen	4.5	3.5	5.2	0.10	17%	2
R4	Aaron Pico	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Arnold Allen	6.2	3.1	4.4	0.40	48%	2
R5	Aaron Pico	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.