Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Joshua Van

edge

Alexandre Pantoja

Striking

◂ Van

Van out-strikes Pantoja

Effective offense

A+

100th

4.8

+15

A

84th

2.2

Defense

D

35th

58%

+9

D

26th

49%

KO power

C

9 KO

0.6 KD

+17

D

8 KO

0.2 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Pantoja ▸

Pantoja has the bigger wrestling edge on Van

Takedowns landed

D

33rd

0.8

+44

A

77th

2.8

Takedown accuracy

A

83rd

62%

+10

A

73rd

48%

Takedown defense

A

73rd

76%

+11

B

62nd

69%

Control time

F

22nd

1.1 min

+61

A

83rd

4.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Pantoja ▸

Pantoja is the bigger submission threat on Van

Submission attempts

D

34th

0.2

+38

A

72nd

1.0

Sub win rate

C

56th

12%

2 subs

+19

A

75th

40%

12 subs

Submission defense

C

46th

5%

Even

C

48th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Pantoja ▸

Pantoja is more likely to finish Van

Finish rate

C

50th

40%

+16

B

66th

57%

KO durability

C

44th

9%

Even

C

51st

0%

Submission defense

C

48th

0%

Even

C

48th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Van

Van pushes the higher work rate over five rounds

Work rate / min — full fight

9.3

7.0

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

8.3

7.0

Pace trend

+34%/rd

+4%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Van

Van is in better recent form than Pantoja

Win rate (career)

91%

78%

After a win

89%

71%

Last 5

100%

80%

Win streakW5L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Pantoja ▸

Pantoja has faced the tougher schedule vs Van

Schedule strength

52%

78%

Win quality

84%

79%

Ranked opponents

4

13

Title-holder bouts

1

Even

1

Common opp (1)1-02-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Van

Van is fresher and more active than Pantoja

Last bout

4mo

9mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

7

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Pantoja 2" reach · Van 12y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Joshua VanvsAlexandre Pantoja

24

Age

12y

younger

36

5'5"

165cm

Height

Even

5'5"

165cm

65"

165cm

Reach

2"

reach

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Joshua VanAlexandre Pantoja

Percentile

Striking/min8.434.38

Accuracy%57%50%

Defense%58%49%

Takedowns/150.82.8

TD defense%75%69%

Submissions/150.21.0

Career rate as a percentile within the flyweight (117 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

50%

-112

MMA Index model

Unlock

50%

-108

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

VanJoshua Van

PantojaAlexandre Pantoja

—

As pick'em

2-0100%

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

VanJoshua Van

Stat

PantojaAlexandre Pantoja

4

1

KO / TKO

2

1

0

Submission

6

0

6

0

Decision

6

3

13:15

Avg fight time

11:56

Joshua Van’s splits

vs Pantoja

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

1-150%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Alexandre Pantoja’s splits

vs Van

vs Southpaw

5-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

11-192%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Joshua VanvsAlexandre Pantoja

24

Age

12y

younger

36

5'5"

165cm

Height

Even

5'5"

165cm

65"

165cm

Reach

2"

reach

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

63rd

+14

C

49th

Van has the striking edge (+14).

Attacking

Van’s offensevsPantoja’s defense

Where Van attacks (green = high volume) vs where Pantoja gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Van’s green zones meeting Pantoja’s red zones are the openings.

Joshua VanOffense

Head73%99th892
Body19%92nd235
Leg8%63rd103

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Alexandre PantojaDefense

Head81%22nd677
Body12%75th96
Leg7%74th60

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Van — by position

87%Standing

Standing87%1,070
Clinch8%94
Ground5%66

Pantoja — absorbed by position

86%Standing

Standing86%719
Clinch7%57
Ground7%57

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Van’s offensevsPantoja’s defense

Head

A+

99th

77.3

+77

F

22nd

45.1

Body

A+

92nd

21.0

+17

A

75th

7.5

Leg

B

63rd

10.0

+11

A

74th

4.9

Pantoja’s offensevsVan’s defense

Head

A

79th

39.7

+68

F

11th

53.0

Body

A

74th

13.5

+39

D

35th

13.1

Leg

B

62nd

9.6

+48

F

14th

13.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Joshua Van	elite — top of division77.3	51%	bottom of the division53.0	892
Head	Alexandre Pantoja	top 21% of division39.7	42%	well below average45.1	597
Body	Joshua Van	top 8% of division21.0	82%	below division average13.1	235
Body	Alexandre Pantoja	top 26% of division13.5	74%	top 25% of division7.5	202
Leg	Joshua Van	above division average10.0	91%	bottom of the division13.5	103
Leg	Alexandre Pantoja	above division average9.6	81%	top 26% of division4.9	142

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

54th

+17

A

71st

Pantoja has the grappling edge (+17).

Takedowns

C

42nd

0.8

+31

A

73rd

2.8

Takedown accuracy

A

83rd

62%

8/13

+10

A

73rd

48%

40/84

Takedown defense

A

73rd

76%

56/74

+11

B

62nd

69%

54/78

Submission threat

D

41st

0.2

+28

B

69th

1.0

Control time

D

32nd

1.1 min

+46

A

78th

4.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Joshua Van	Alexandre Pantoja
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.88	2.840
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	62%8 / 13	48%40 / 84
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	76%56 / 74	69%54 / 78
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.22	1.014
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.1 min10:40	4.8 min69:18
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.3 min22:24	1.7 min23:43

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Pantoja

1-0

1-0

2-0

2-0

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Joshua Van

66

Schedule Score

Alexandre Pantoja

87

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

146 min

11 bouts

Octagon time

69 min

more

215 min

18 bouts

Schedule strength

52%

78%

Win quality

84%

79%

Ranked opponents

4

13

Title-holder bouts

1

Even

1

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Joshua Van	Alexandre Pantoja
Champion	1-0	2-2
Top-5	2-0	6-1
Ranked 6–15	3-1	4-1
Building	1-0	2-0
Unproven	3-0	—

Joshua Van — bouts

Alexandre Pantoja — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Van — last 5

recent → old

Pantoja — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

4-1

Current streak

W5

L1

Ranked opps

3 of 5

4 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

9 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Title fights

SituationVan Pantoja

All title fightschallenger or champ

2-0100%

5-183%

As championbelt defenses

1-0100%

4-180%

As challengerfor the belt

1-0100%

Post-result bounce

SituationVan Pantoja

After a loss

1-0100%

3-0100%

After a win

8-189%

10-471%

Camp length

SituationVan Pantoja

Short turnaround< 100 days

6-0100%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

3-0100%

6-275%

Long layoff> 180 days

0-10%

7-278%

Rematches

SituationVan Pantoja

All rematchesany repeat opponent

—

2-0100%

Encore boutswon the first

—

2-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Van11W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Pantoja20W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

D

40th

65%

+9

C

49th

67%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

32%

42%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

B

60th

5%

Even

B

66th

3%

Submission defense

↑5%·Pantoja

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑5%·Pantoja

B

60th

5%

+9

B

69th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Joshua Van	Alexandre Pantoja
Wins
by KO / TKO	9(53%)	8(27%)
by submission	2(12%)	12(40%)
by decision	6(35%)	10(33%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(50%)	1(17%)
by submission	1(50%)	0(0%)
by decision	0(0%)	5(83%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Joshua Van

vs

Alexandre Pantoja

36%

4 KO/TKO in 11 bouts

Knockout rate

11%

2 KO/TKO in 18 bouts

7

0.8 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

4

0.7 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

0.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Joshua VanFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Charles Johnson2y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024 · R3 · 0:20
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Alexandre PantojaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Joshua Van8 months ago
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025 · R1 · 0:26
* injury · not a clean KO
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Joshua Van

219%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Alexandre Pantoja

90%

R3 vs R1 · 11 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Van leans harder: Van builds (+33% per round through round 3), Pantoja builds (+4% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Van lifts to 219% of round-1 output by round 3, Pantoja 90%.

Van ▲ BUILDS

Pantoja ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Van

Pantojalanded / min

Takedown attempts

Van

Pantojaattempts / min

Control time

Van

Pantoja% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Joshua Van	4.9	4.8	5.3	0.02	1%	11
R1	Alexandre Pantoja	7.1	4.6	2.9	0.38	34%	18
R2	Joshua Van	11.8	11.1	6.1	0.08	11%	10
R2	Alexandre Pantoja	6.8	4.8	4.3	0.36	24%	13
R3	Joshua Van	11.1	10.0	6.6	0.20	12%	9
R3	Alexandre Pantoja	6.0	3.7	4.0	0.40	27%	11
R4	Joshua Van	3.9	3.8	2.6	0.00	1%	1
R4	Alexandre Pantoja	6.3	2.9	4.6	0.47	51%	3
R5	Joshua Van	17.6	17.6	4.6	0.00	0%	1
R5	Alexandre Pantoja	8.9	5.4	6.3	0.47	52%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.