Compare Carla Esparza vs Valentina Shevchenko — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Carla has 1y 1mo more layoff
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Strawweight roster (79 fighters). Carla Esparza fights at Strawweight; Valentina Shevchenko at Women's Flyweight — Valentina Shevchenko’s percentiles are measured against a division they don’t compete in, so read them with that in mind.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Carla Esparza | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 2-2 | 3-3-1 |
| Top-5 | 3-2 | 10-0 |
| Top-15 | 5-2 | — |
| Cross-div champ | — | 1-0 |
| Unproven | — | 1-0 |
- L vs Tecia Pennington57Oct 5, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Zhang Weili#297Nov 12, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Rose NamajunasCHAMP100May 7, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Yan Xiaonan#391May 22, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Marina Rodriguez#982Jul 25, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez55May 9, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Alexa Grasso#975Sep 21, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Virna Jandiroba65Apr 27, 2019 · Top-5
- L vs Tatiana Suarez#986Sep 8, 2018 · Top-5
- L vs Claudia Gadelha#388Jun 9, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Cynthia Calvillo#678Dec 30, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Maryna Moroz#1072Jun 25, 2017 · Top-15
- L vs Randa Markos#1371Feb 19, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Juliana Lima#1465Apr 23, 2016 · Top-15
- L vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk#197Mar 14, 2015 · Champion
- W vs Rose Namajunas83Dec 12, 2014 · Champion
- W vs Zhang Weili67Nov 15, 2025 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Manon Fiorot#294May 10, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Alexa GrassoCHAMP100Sep 14, 2024 · Champion
- D vs Alexa GrassoCHAMP100Sep 16, 2023 · Champion
- L vs Alexa Grasso#691Mar 4, 2023 · Champion
- W vs Taila Santos#488Jun 11, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Lauren Murphy#386Sep 25, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Jessica Andrade#195Apr 24, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Jennifer Maia#384Nov 21, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Katlyn Cerminara70Feb 8, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Liz Carmouche#384Aug 10, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Jessica Eye#190Jun 8, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk72Dec 8, 2018 · Top-5
- W vs Priscila Cachoeira8Feb 3, 2018 · Unproven
- L vs Amanda NunesCHAMP100Sep 9, 2017 · Champion
- W vs Julianna Pena#296Jan 28, 2017 · Champion
- W vs Holly Holm#296Jul 23, 2016 · Champion
- L vs Amanda Nunes#493Mar 5, 2016 · Champion
- W vs Sarah Kaufman#683Dec 19, 2015 · Top-5
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Shevchenko holds a decisive striking edge (+27).
Where Esparza attacks (green = high volume) vs where Shevchenko gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Esparza’s green zones meeting Shevchenko’s red zones are the openings.
- Head74%—363
- Body14%—71
- Leg12%—58
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head37%—265
- Body30%—215
- Leg34%—246
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing57%280
- Clinch13%63
- Ground30%149
- Standing73%529
- Clinch21%153
- Ground6%44
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Carla Esparza | 20.2 | 34% | 26.3 | 363 |
| Head | Valentina Shevchenko | 26.6 | 45% | 9.8 | 722 |
| Body | Carla Esparza | 4.0 | 70% | 5.0 | 71 |
| Body | Valentina Shevchenko | 5.5 | 68% | 7.9 | 150 |
| Leg | Carla Esparza | 3.2 | 78% | 4.5 | 58 |
| Leg | Valentina Shevchenko | 8.4 | 82% | 9.1 | 228 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 3.349 | 2.664 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 36%49 / 135 | 62%64 / 104 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 47%17 / 36 | 76%42 / 55 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 4.2 min63:28 | 4.7 min113:49 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 2.2 min32:35 | 2.1 min51:08 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Carla Esparza | Valentina Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 4(21%) | 8(31%) |
| by submission | 4(21%) | 7(27%) |
| by decision | 11(58%) | 11(42%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 2(25%) | 1(25%) |
| by submission | 2(25%) | 1(25%) |
| by decision | 4(50%) | 2(50%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Tatiana Suarez7y 9mo agoUFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 8, 2018 · R3 · 4:33
- Last time submittedvs Zhang Weili3y 7mo agoUFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022 · R2 · 1:05
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedvs Alexa Grasso3y 3mo agoUFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 4, 2023 · R4 · 4:34
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Esparza: Esparza builds (+16% per round through round 3) while Shevchenko holds steady (+3% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Esparza lifts to 150% of round-1 output by round 3, Shevchenko 115%.
Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Carla Esparza | 4.4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 0.46 | 33% | 16 |
| R1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.28 | 38% | 19 |
| R2 | Carla Esparza | 5.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.63 | 28% | 16 |
| R2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.30 | 33% | 19 |
| R3 | Carla Esparza | 6.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.74 | 26% | 13 |
| R3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.31 | 26% | 15 |
| R4 | Carla Esparza | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.00 | 7% | 1 |
| R4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.22 | 28% | 12 |
| R5 | Carla Esparza | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 0.40 | 0% | 1 |
| R5 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5.4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.32 | 27% | 10 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.