Compare Karol Rosa vs Macy Chiasson — UFC matchup breakdown
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Macy is speeding up while opponent slows
Division percentiles below rank both fighters against the Women's Bantamweight roster (31 fighters). Karol Rosa fights at Women's Bantamweight; Macy Chiasson at Bantamweight — Macy Chiasson’s percentiles are measured against a division they don’t compete in, so read them with that in mind.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Karol Rosa | Macy Chiasson |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Top-15 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Cross-div champ | — | 0-1 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Unproven | 2-0 | 1-0 |
- L vs Luana Santos#1169Jun 20, 2026 · Top-15
- W vs Nora Cornolle#1265Aug 2, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Ailin Perez#1373Jan 18, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Pannie Kianzad#1172Aug 10, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Irene Aldana#584Dec 16, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Yana Santos45Jul 1, 2023 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Norma Dumont45Apr 22, 2023 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Lina Lansberg#1367Oct 22, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Sara McMann#979Mar 26, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Bethe Correia#1370Oct 2, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Joselyne Edwards57Feb 6, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Vanessa Melo8Jul 11, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Lara Procopio8Aug 31, 2019 · Unproven
- L vs Ailin Perez#876Feb 28, 2026 · Top-5
- L vs Yana Santos#1075Oct 4, 2025 · Top-5
- L vs Ketlen Vieira45May 31, 2025 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Mayra Bueno Silva#386Jun 29, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Pannie Kianzad#675Mar 16, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Irene Aldana45Sep 10, 2022 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Norma Dumont45May 7, 2022 · Cross-div ranked
- L vs Raquel Pennington67Dec 18, 2021 · Cross-div champ
- W vs Marion Reneau#973Mar 20, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Shanna Young8Feb 15, 2020 · Unproven
- L vs Lina Lansberg#1267Sep 28, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Sarah Moras#1463May 4, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Gina Mazany#1560Mar 2, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Pannie Kianzad47Nov 30, 2018 · Cross-div ranked
All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Career splits
Striking matchup
Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.
Where Rosa attacks (green = high volume) vs where Chiasson gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Rosa’s green zones meeting Chiasson’s red zones are the openings.
- Head58%78th623
- Body13%51st136
- Leg29%96th307
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes
- Head61%65th255
- Body30%42nd127
- Leg9%71st39
Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent
- Standing80%853
- Clinch11%112
- Ground9%101
- Standing55%233
- Clinch32%135
- Ground13%53
Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Karol Rosa | top 22% of division45.3 | 46% | around division average37.0 | 623 |
| Head | Macy Chiasson | below division average28.1 | 35% | above division average27.9 | 268 |
| Body | Karol Rosa | around division average10.7 | 80% | below division average14.5 | 136 |
| Body | Macy Chiasson | top 23% of division15.7 | 75% | below division average12.4 | 173 |
| Leg | Karol Rosa | elite — top of division20.8 | 81% | well below average11.7 | 307 |
| Leg | Macy Chiasson | below division average5.6 | 77% | top 29% of division4.9 | 49 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).
Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Macy Chiasson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns | 1.114 | 1.919 |
| Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted | 48%14 / 29 | 36%19 / 53 |
| Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced | 73%27 / 37 | 63%20 / 32 |
| Submission attempts / 15career attempts | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| Control time / 15 (min)career total | 4.0 min52:20 | 5.1 min52:09 |
| Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total | 3.0 min39:08 | 3.7 min37:38 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every pro finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
Full professional career
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Karol Rosa | Macy Chiasson |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 4(21%) | 3(30%) |
| by submission | 2(11%) | 3(30%) |
| by decision | 13(68%) | 4(40%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0(0%) | 1(17%) |
| by submission | 2(29%) | 1(17%) |
| by decision | 5(71%) | 4(67%) |
Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Irene Aldana3y 9mo agoUFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022 · R3 · 2:21
- Last time submittedvs Raquel Pennington4y 6mo agoUFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021 · R2 · 3:07
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Rosa: Rosa builds (+19% per round through round 3) while Chiasson fades (-15% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Rosa lifts to 146% of round-1 output by round 3, Chiasson 79%.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Karol Rosa | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 0.09 | 16% | 13 |
| R1 | Macy Chiasson | 6.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.30 | 27% | 14 |
| R2 | Karol Rosa | 7.1 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.09 | 31% | 13 |
| R2 | Macy Chiasson | 5.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.38 | 41% | 12 |
| R3 | Karol Rosa | 8.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 0.26 | 33% | 13 |
| R3 | Macy Chiasson | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.37 | 37% | 8 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.