Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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37 fighters · / 100- 1
Brian Ortega5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 2
Darren Elkins9-8 as underdog · 53%49.1 - 3
Cub Swanson8-7 as underdog · 53%49.0 - 4
Chan Sung Jung5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 5
Nate Landwehr4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 6
Steven Siler3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 7
Akira Corassani3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 8
Kaan Ofli3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 9
Edson Barboza3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 10
Pablo Garza3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 11
Bill Algeo3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 12
Josh Emmett6-6 as underdog · 50%45.7 - 13
Julian Erosa5-5 as underdog · 50%45.1 - 14
Giga Chikadze4-4 as underdog · 50%44.3 - 15
Kyle Nelson3-3 as underdog · 50%43.1 - 16
Gabriel Benitez3-3 as underdog · 50%43.1 - 17
Godofredo Pepey3-4 as underdog · 43%39.2 - 18
Damon Jackson3-4 as underdog · 43%39.2 - 19
Jeremy Stephens4-6 as underdog · 40%37.9 - 20
Andre Fili4-6 as underdog · 40%37.9 - 21
Yair Rodriguez2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 22
Arnold Allen2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 23
Sheymon Moraes2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 24
Steven Peterson2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 25
Darrick Minner2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 26
Charles Oliveira2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 27
Daniel Pineda3-5 as underdog · 38%35.9 - 28
Makwan Amirkhani3-5 as underdog · 38%35.9 - 29
Ricardo Lamas3-5 as underdog · 38%35.9 - 30
Dan Ige4-7 as underdog · 36%35.4 - 31
Alex Caceres4-8 as underdog · 33%33.2 - 32
Calvin Kattar3-6 as underdog · 33%33.2 - 33
Max Holloway3-6 as underdog · 33%33.2 - 34
Lucas Almeida2-4 as underdog · 33%33.1 - 35
Sam Sicilia2-5 as underdog · 29%30.1 - 36
Kyle Bochniak1-4 as underdog · 20%25.7 - 37
Charles Rosa1-5 as underdog · 17%23.1