King Green vs Terrance McKinney Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

King Green

edge

Terrance McKinney

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A+

98th

3.4

Even

A+

98th

3.6

Defense

B

65th

62%

+31

D

34th

43%

KO power

D

12 KO

0.2 KD

+22

B

9 KO

0.2 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

McKinney ▸

McKinney has the bigger wrestling edge on Green

Takedowns landed

C

53rd

1.3

+34

A+

86th

3.1

Takedown accuracy

A

70th

47%

+8

B

62nd

43%

Takedown defense

B

64th

70%

Even

B

62nd

73%

Control time

D

42nd

2.2 min

+52

A+

94th

6.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

McKinney ▸

McKinney is the bigger submission threat on Green

Submission attempts

C

46th

0.3

+51

A+

97th

2.5

Sub win rate

A

72nd

29%

10 subs

+11

A

83rd

50%

9 subs

Submission defense

C

48th

6%

+8

D

40th

12%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

McKinney ▸

McKinney is more likely to finish Green

Finish rate

C

43rd

44%

+38

A

81st

100%

KO durability

D

41st

18%

Even

D

36th

23%

Submission defense

C

50th

4%

+17

D

33rd

15%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

7.9

8.5

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.2

8.5

Pace trend+17%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

57%

62%

After a win

60%

43%

Last 5

60%

Even

60%

Win streakW3W1

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Green

Green has faced the tougher schedule vs McKinney

Schedule strength

48%

21%

Win quality

48%

52%

Ranked opponents

12

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)0-10-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Green

Green is fresher and more active than McKinney

Last bout

2mo

3mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

5

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

McKinney ▸

McKinney 2" reach · McKinney 8y younger · Switch-stance wrinkle

King GreenvsTerrance McKinney

39

Age

8y

younger

31

5'10"

178cm

Height

Even

5'10"

178cm

71"

180cm

Reach

2"

reach

73"

185cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

King GreenTerrance McKinney

Percentile

Striking/min6.466.53

Accuracy%53%55%

Defense%62%43%

Takedowns/151.33.3

TD defense%72%72%

Submissions/150.32.1

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (421 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 15m ago

King Green

Consensus

45%▲ 45

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Green

Kalshi45¢bestSportsbook+11046%

Terrance McKinney

Consensus

55%▲ 56

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet McKinney

Kalshi56¢bestSportsbook-13054%

Green 45%55% McKinney

$66k vol · $52k OI$54k vol · $46k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

King Green

29%+205

11%+700

7%+1200

Terrance McKinney

30%+193

20%+328

3%+2500

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

King Green

29%+205

11%+700

7%+1200

Terrance McKinney

30%+193

20%+328

3%+2500

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over14%+575
Under86%-1250

Goes the distance

Yes10%+825
No90%-1430

UFC betting history

Career

GreenKing Green

McKinneyTerrance McKinney

1-0100%

As pick'em

1-150%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

GreenKing Green

Stat

McKinneyTerrance McKinney

4

5

KO / TKO

5

3

1

Submission

3

2

9

6

Decision

0

10:38

Avg fight time

2:16

King Green’s splits

vs McKinney

vs Orthodox

8-657%

vs Southpaw

5-550%

vs Shorter reach

2-625%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Terrance McKinney’s splits

vs Green

vs Southpaw

0-20%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

King GreenvsTerrance McKinney

39

Age

8y

younger

31

5'10"

178cm

Height

Even

5'10"

178cm

71"

180cm

Reach

2"

reach

73"

185cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

67th

Even

B

64th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Green’s offensevsMcKinney’s defense

Where Green attacks (green = high volume) vs where McKinney gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Green’s green zones meeting McKinney’s red zones are the openings.

King GreenOffense

Head59%93rd1,208
Body24%96th504
Leg17%88th346

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Terrance McKinneyDefense

Head69%37th84
Body20%38th24
Leg11%48th13

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Green — by position

81%Standing

Standing81%1,671
Clinch9%179
Ground10%208

McKinney — absorbed by position

57%Standing

Standing57%69
Clinch16%19
Ground27%33

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Green’s offensevsMcKinney’s defense

Head

A+

93rd

54.4

+56

D

37th

36.9

Body

A+

96th

22.4

+57

D

38th

11.2

Leg

A+

88th

15.5

+39

C

48th

7.7

McKinney’s offensevsGreen’s defense

Head

A+

94th

58.3

+47

C

47th

32.1

Body

B

67th

12.2

+27

D

40th

10.9

Leg

D

36th

4.8

+10

D

26th

10.9

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	King Green	top 7% of division54.4	45%	around division average32.1	1,208
Head	Terrance McKinney	top 6% of division58.3	54%	below division average36.9	199
Body	King Green	elite — top of division22.4	72%	below division average10.9	504
Body	Terrance McKinney	above division average12.2	73%	below division average11.2	30
Leg	King Green	top 12% of division15.5	80%	well below average10.9	346
Leg	Terrance McKinney	below division average4.8	0%	around division average7.7	0

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

King Green

Terrance McKinney

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

56th

+17

A

72nd

McKinney has the grappling edge (+17).

Takedowns

C

54th

1.3

+19

A

73rd

3.1

Takedown accuracy

A

70th

47%

27/58

+8

B

62nd

43%

6/14

Takedown defense

B

64th

70%

51/73

Even

B

62nd

73%

8/11

Submission threat

C

49th

0.3

+38

A+

87th

2.5

Control time

C

44th

2.2 min

+35

A

79th

6.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	King Green	Terrance McKinney
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.327	3.16
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	47%27 / 58	43%6 / 14
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	70%51 / 73	73%8 / 11
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.36	2.55
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.2 min46:07	6.8 min13:21
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.3 min26:55	1.8 min3:32

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

King Green

Terrance McKinney

Record vs common opponents

Even

0-1

0-1

0-1

0-1

Both lost

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

King Green

48

Schedule Score

Terrance McKinney

34

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

313 min

29 bouts

Octagon time

284 min

more

29 min

13 bouts

Schedule strength

48%

21%

Win quality

48%

52%

Ranked opponents

12

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	King Green	Terrance McKinney
Top-5	4-3	—
Top-15	2-7	2-1
Cross-div champ	0-1	—
Cross-div ranked	3-0	—
Contender-level	2-1	—
Established	2-0, 1 NC	0-1
Building	1-0	2-3
Unproven	2-0-1	4-0

King Green — bouts

Terrance McKinney — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

King Green

Terrance McKinney

Green — last 5

recent → old

McKinney — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

Even

3-2

Current streak

W3

W1

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

2 mo

3 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

King Green

Terrance McKinney

Post-result bounce

SituationGreen McKinney

After a loss

5-645%

4-180%

After a win

9-660%

3-443%

Camp length

SituationGreen McKinney

Short turnaround< 100 days

8-373%

2-167%

Typical camp100–180 days

2-250%

3-350%

Long layoff> 180 days

5-742%

2-167%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

King Green

Terrance McKinney

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Green22W–9L by finish

R1

R2

R3

McKinney18W–7L by finish · 94% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑37%·McKinney

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑37%·McKinney

D

36th

63%

+55

A+

91st

100%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

40%

0%

KO durability

↑7%·Green

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑7%·Green

D

34th

12%

+19

F

15th

19%

Submission defense

↑6%·Green

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Green

C

48th

6%

+22

D

26th

12%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	King Green	Terrance McKinney
Wins
by KO / TKO	12(34%)	9(50%)
by submission	10(29%)	9(50%)
by decision	13(37%)	0(0%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	6(35%)	5(63%)
by submission	3(18%)	3(38%)
by decision	8(47%)	0(0%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

King Green

vs

Terrance McKinney

14%

4 KO/TKO in 29 bouts

Knockout rate

36%

5 KO/TKO in 14 bouts

6

0.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

1.5 / 100 head

5

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

6

0.9 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

4

4.8 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

King GreenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Mauricio Ruffy1y 4mo ago
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 8, 2025 · R1 · 2:07
Last time submitted
vs Paddy Pimblett1y 11mo ago
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024 · R1 · 3:22

Terrance McKinneyFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Esteban Ribovics2y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024 · R1 · 0:37
Last time submitted
vs Chris Duncan7 months ago
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025 · R1 · 2:30

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

King Green

151%

R3 vs R1 · 18 bouts reaching R3

Terrance McKinney

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Green lifts to 151% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). McKinney hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Green ▲ BUILDS

McKinneyOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Green

McKinneylanded / min

Takedown attempts

Green

McKinneyattempts / min

Control time

Green

McKinney% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	King Green	6.6	5.7	3.5	0.17	11%	29
R1	Terrance McKinney	11.8	8.5	3.9	0.42	51%	13
R2	King Green	7.8	6.6	3.5	0.15	16%	20
R2	Terrance McKinney	5.2	2.4	5.9	0.88	4%	2
R3	King Green	9.3	7.8	3.9	0.25	18%	18
R3	Terrance McKinney	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.