Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Justin Gaethje
8-3 as underdog · 73%
62.1
2
Charles Oliveira
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
3
Dustin Poirier
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
4
Abel Trujillo
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
5
Beneil Dariush
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
6
Michael Johnson
7-5 as underdog · 58%
52.0
7
Diego Ferreira
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
8
Evan Dunham
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
9
Paul Felder
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
10
Donald Cerrone
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Dennis Siver
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
12
Matt Frevola
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
13
Eddie Alvarez
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
14
Nate Diaz
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
15
Vinc Pichel
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
16
Leonardo Santos
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
James Vick
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
18
Nik Lentz
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
19
Sam Stout
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
20
Francisco Trinaldo
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
21
Melvin Guillard
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
22
Diego Sanchez
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
23
Dan Hooker
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
24
John Makdessi
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
25
Rafael Dos Anjos
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
26
Clay Guida
7-11 as underdog · 39%
37.8
27
Kurt Holobaugh
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
28
Drakkar Klose
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
29
Alan Patrick
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
30
Tae Hyun Bang
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Joaquim Silva
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Marco Polo Reyes
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Reza Madadi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
Chris Gruetzemacher
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Kurt Pellegrino
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Brad Riddell
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Al Iaquinta
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
38
King Green
6-10 as underdog · 38%
36.6
39
Ross Pearson
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
40
Efrain Escudero
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
41
Joe Lauzon
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
42
Drew Dober
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
43
Gray Maynard
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
44
Yves Edwards
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
45
Matt Wiman
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
46
Nasrat Haqparast
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
47
Damir Hadzovic
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Jamie Mullarkey
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
49
Jim Miller
6-14 as underdog · 30%
30.5
50
Thiago Moises
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1