Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Justin Gaethje
9-3 as underdog · 75%
64.5
2
Charles Oliveira
7-3 as underdog · 70%
59.4
3
Chris Duncan
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
4
Michael Johnson
8-5 as underdog · 62%
54.8
5
Dustin Poirier
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
6
Abel Trujillo
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
7
Beneil Dariush
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
8
Evan Dunham
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
9
Diego Ferreira
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
10
Paul Felder
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Donald Cerrone
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
12
Nate Diaz
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
13
Matt Frevola
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
14
Eddie Alvarez
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
15
Dennis Siver
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
16
Renato Moicano
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
Leonardo Santos
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
18
James Vick
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
19
Nik Lentz
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
20
Joaquim Silva
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
21
Rafa Garcia
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
22
Sam Stout
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
23
Francisco Trinaldo
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
24
Melvin Guillard
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
25
Dan Hooker
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
26
Diego Sanchez
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
27
Vinc Pichel
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
28
Rafael Dos Anjos
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
29
John Makdessi
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
30
Clay Guida
7-11 as underdog · 39%
37.8
31
Brad Riddell
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Al Iaquinta
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Maheshate
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
Tae Hyun Bang
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Marco Polo Reyes
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Chris Gruetzemacher
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Kurt Pellegrino
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
38
Reza Madadi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
39
Drakkar Klose
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
40
Elves Brener
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
41
Alan Patrick
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
42
King Green
6-10 as underdog · 38%
36.6
43
Efrain Escudero
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
44
Ross Pearson
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
45
Joe Lauzon
4-8 as underdog · 33%
33.2
46
Drew Dober
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
47
Gray Maynard
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Kurt Holobaugh
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
49
Yves Edwards
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
50
Matt Wiman
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1