Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

32 fighters · / 100

1
Alejandro Perez
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Mario Bautista
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
3
Rob Font
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
4
Bryan Caraway
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
5
Aljamain Sterling
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
6
Pedro Munhoz
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
7
Frankie Saenz
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
8
Russell Doane
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
9
Guido Cannetti
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
10
Douglas Silva de Andrade
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
11
Brian Kelleher
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
12
Davey Grant
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
13
Raphael Assuncao
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
14
Alex Caceres
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
15
John Dodson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
16
Cody Garbrandt
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
17
Jose Quinonez
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
18
Yves Jabouin
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
19
Vaughan Lee
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
20
Deiveson Figueiredo
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
21
Jose Aldo
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
22
Vince Morales
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
23
Johnny Eduardo
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
24
Cody Gibson
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
Andre Soukhamthath
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
26
Joe Soto
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
27
Eddie Wineland
2-8 as underdog · 20%
23.7
28
Marlon Vera
2-8 as underdog · 20%
23.7
29
Takeya Mizugaki
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
30
Urijah Faber
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
31
Brad Pickett
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
32
Francisco Rivera
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6