Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Justin Gaethje
9-3 as underdog · 75%
64.5
2
Charles Oliveira
7-3 as underdog · 70%
59.4
3
Chris Duncan
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
4
Michael Johnson
8-5 as underdog · 62%
54.8
5
Dustin Poirier
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
6
Abel Trujillo
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
7
Beneil Dariush
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
8
Donald Cerrone
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
9
Diego Ferreira
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
10
Paul Felder
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Matt Frevola
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
12
Eddie Alvarez
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
13
Nate Diaz
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
14
Leonardo Santos
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
15
Renato Moicano
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
16
Dennis Siver
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
James Vick
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
18
Rafael Dos Anjos
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
19
Rafa Garcia
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
20
Joaquim Silva
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
21
Diego Sanchez
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
22
Nik Lentz
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
23
Francisco Trinaldo
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
24
Evan Dunham
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
25
Dan Hooker
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
26
Vinc Pichel
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
27
Clay Guida
6-9 as underdog · 40%
38.5
28
John Makdessi
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
29
Chris Gruetzemacher
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
30
Sam Stout
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Melvin Guillard
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Reza Madadi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Al Iaquinta
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
Alan Patrick
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Tae Hyun Bang
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Marco Polo Reyes
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Drakkar Klose
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
38
Brad Riddell
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
39
Maheshate
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
40
Elves Brener
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
41
King Green
6-10 as underdog · 38%
36.6
42
Joe Lauzon
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
43
Drew Dober
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
44
Yves Edwards
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
45
Kurt Holobaugh
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
46
Jim Miller
6-14 as underdog · 30%
30.5
47
Damir Hadzovic
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
48
Efrain Escudero
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
49
Nasrat Haqparast
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
50
Austin Hubbard
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1