MMA Index
Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Justin Gaethje
    Justin Gaethje
    8-3 as underdog · 73%
    62.1
  2. 2
    Charles Oliveira
    Charles Oliveira
    6-3 as underdog · 67%
    56.2
  3. 3
    Dustin Poirier
    Dustin Poirier
    4-2 as underdog · 67%
    53.1
  4. 4
    Abel Trujillo
    Abel Trujillo
    5-3 as underdog · 63%
    52.6
  5. 5
    Beneil Dariush
    Beneil Dariush
    6-4 as underdog · 60%
    52.2
  6. 6
    Michael Johnson
    Michael Johnson
    7-5 as underdog · 58%
    52.0
  7. 7
    Donald Cerrone
    Donald Cerrone
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  8. 8
    Paul Felder
    Paul Felder
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  9. 9
    Diego Ferreira
    Diego Ferreira
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  10. 10
    Matt Frevola
    Matt Frevola
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  11. 11
    Nate Diaz
    Nate Diaz
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  12. 12
    Eddie Alvarez
    Eddie Alvarez
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  13. 13
    Vinc Pichel
    Vinc Pichel
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  14. 14
    Leonardo Santos
    Leonardo Santos
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  15. 15
    James Vick
    James Vick
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  16. 16
    Dennis Siver
    Dennis Siver
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  17. 17
    Rafael Dos Anjos
    Rafael Dos Anjos
    4-4 as underdog · 50%
    44.3
  18. 18
    Diego Sanchez
    Diego Sanchez
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  19. 19
    Francisco Trinaldo
    Francisco Trinaldo
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  20. 20
    Nik Lentz
    Nik Lentz
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  21. 21
    Evan Dunham
    Evan Dunham
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  22. 22
    Dan Hooker
    Dan Hooker
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  23. 23
    Clay Guida
    Clay Guida
    6-9 as underdog · 40%
    38.5
  24. 24
    John Makdessi
    John Makdessi
    4-6 as underdog · 40%
    37.9
  25. 25
    Sam Stout
    Sam Stout
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  26. 26
    Drakkar Klose
    Drakkar Klose
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  27. 27
    Alan Patrick
    Alan Patrick
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  28. 28
    Marco Polo Reyes
    Marco Polo Reyes
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  29. 29
    Tae Hyun Bang
    Tae Hyun Bang
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  30. 30
    Kurt Holobaugh
    Kurt Holobaugh
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  31. 31
    Reza Madadi
    Reza Madadi
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  32. 32
    Chris Gruetzemacher
    Chris Gruetzemacher
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  33. 33
    Melvin Guillard
    Melvin Guillard
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  34. 34
    Joaquim Silva
    Joaquim Silva
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  35. 35
    Brad Riddell
    Brad Riddell
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  36. 36
    Al Iaquinta
    Al Iaquinta
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  37. 37
    King Green
    King Green
    6-10 as underdog · 38%
    36.6
  38. 38
    Joe Lauzon
    Joe Lauzon
    4-7 as underdog · 36%
    35.4
  39. 39
    Drew Dober
    Drew Dober
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  40. 40
    Jamie Mullarkey
    Jamie Mullarkey
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  41. 41
    Nasrat Haqparast
    Nasrat Haqparast
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  42. 42
    Damir Hadzovic
    Damir Hadzovic
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  43. 43
    Yves Edwards
    Yves Edwards
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  44. 44
    Jim Miller
    Jim Miller
    6-13 as underdog · 32%
    31.8
  45. 45
    Mitch Clarke
    Mitch Clarke
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  46. 46
    Thiago Moises
    Thiago Moises
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  47. 47
    Efrain Escudero
    Efrain Escudero
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  48. 48
    Danny Castillo
    Danny Castillo
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6
  49. 49
    Damien Brown
    Damien Brown
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  50. 50
    Gray Maynard
    Gray Maynard
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7