Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

29 fighters · / 100

1
Rose Namajunas
5-1 as underdog · 83%
63.1
2
Denise Gomes
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
3
Carla Esparza
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
4
Yan Xiaonan
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
5
Felice Herrig
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
6
Vanessa Demopoulos
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
7
Marina Rodriguez
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
8
Sam Hughes
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
9
Amanda Lemos
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
10
Cortney Casey
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
11
Jessica Penne
3-5 as underdog · 38%
35.9
12
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
13
Elise Reed
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
14
Randa Markos
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
15
Jessica Andrade
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
16
Jinh Yu Frey
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
17
Amanda Cooper
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
18
Virna Jandiroba
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
19
Juliana Lima
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
20
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
21
Tabatha Ricci
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
22
Alex Chambers
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
23
Jessica Aguilar
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
24
Hannah Cifers
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
2-8 as underdog · 20%
23.7
26
Polyana Viana
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
27
Angela Hill
3-12 as underdog · 20%
22.7
28
Tecia Pennington
1-7 as underdog · 13%
19.3
29
Ashley Yoder
1-7 as underdog · 13%
19.3