Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

38 fighters · / 100

1
Jan Blachowicz
10-3 as underdog · 77%
66.5
2
Anthony Perosh
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
3
Khalil Rountree Jr.
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
4
Nikita Krylov
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
5
Corey Anderson
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
6
Glover Teixeira
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
7
Volkan Oezdemir
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
8
Ryan Bader
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
9
Francimar Barroso
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
10
Alonzo Menifield
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
11
Cyrille Diabate
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
12
Anthony Smith
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
13
Paul Craig
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
14
Ovince Saint Preux
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
15
Ed Herman
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
16
Mauricio Rua
5-7 as underdog · 42%
39.5
17
Thiago Silva
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
18
Kyle Kingsbury
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
19
Ilir Latifi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
20
Eliot Marshall
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
21
Rogerio Nogueira
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
22
Jimi Manuwa
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
23
Johnny Walker
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
24
Dan Henderson
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
25
Ion Cutelaba
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
26
Igor Pokrajac
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
27
Devin Clark
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
28
Patrick Cummins
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
29
Rashad Evans
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
30
Brendson Ribeiro
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
31
Matt Hamill
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
32
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
33
Keith Jardine
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
34
Sam Alvey
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
35
Alexander Gustafsson
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
36
Sean O'Connell
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
37
Gian Villante
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
38
Tito Ortiz
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0