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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

40 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Jan Blachowicz
    Jan Blachowicz
    10-3 as underdog · 77%
    66.5
  2. 2
    Anthony Perosh
    Anthony Perosh
    5-3 as underdog · 63%
    52.6
  3. 3
    Khalil Rountree Jr.
    Khalil Rountree Jr.
    6-4 as underdog · 60%
    52.2
  4. 4
    Alonzo Menifield
    Alonzo Menifield
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  5. 5
    Francimar Barroso
    Francimar Barroso
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  6. 6
    Corey Anderson
    Corey Anderson
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  7. 7
    Ryan Spann
    Ryan Spann
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  8. 8
    Volkan Oezdemir
    Volkan Oezdemir
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  9. 9
    Glover Teixeira
    Glover Teixeira
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  10. 10
    Ryan Bader
    Ryan Bader
    4-4 as underdog · 50%
    44.3
  11. 11
    Nikita Krylov
    Nikita Krylov
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  12. 12
    Cyrille Diabate
    Cyrille Diabate
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  13. 13
    Paul Craig
    Paul Craig
    5-6 as underdog · 45%
    42.1
  14. 14
    Ed Herman
    Ed Herman
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  15. 15
    Ovince Saint Preux
    Ovince Saint Preux
    5-7 as underdog · 42%
    39.5
  16. 16
    Mauricio Rua
    Mauricio Rua
    5-7 as underdog · 42%
    39.5
  17. 17
    Johnny Walker
    Johnny Walker
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  18. 18
    Brendson Ribeiro
    Brendson Ribeiro
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  19. 19
    Anthony Smith
    Anthony Smith
    5-8 as underdog · 38%
    37.1
  20. 20
    Eliot Marshall
    Eliot Marshall
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  21. 21
    Thiago Silva
    Thiago Silva
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  22. 22
    Ilir Latifi
    Ilir Latifi
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  23. 23
    Kyle Kingsbury
    Kyle Kingsbury
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  24. 24
    Marcin Prachnio
    Marcin Prachnio
    3-5 as underdog · 38%
    35.9
  25. 25
    Rogerio Nogueira
    Rogerio Nogueira
    4-7 as underdog · 36%
    35.4
  26. 26
    Ion Cutelaba
    Ion Cutelaba
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  27. 27
    Dan Henderson
    Dan Henderson
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  28. 28
    Jimi Manuwa
    Jimi Manuwa
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  29. 29
    Igor Pokrajac
    Igor Pokrajac
    3-7 as underdog · 30%
    30.8
  30. 30
    Devin Clark
    Devin Clark
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6
  31. 31
    Gadzhimurad Antigulov
    Gadzhimurad Antigulov
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  32. 32
    Sam Alvey
    Sam Alvey
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  33. 33
    Patrick Cummins
    Patrick Cummins
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  34. 34
    Rashad Evans
    Rashad Evans
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  35. 35
    Keith Jardine
    Keith Jardine
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  36. 36
    Matt Hamill
    Matt Hamill
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  37. 37
    Gian Villante
    Gian Villante
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  38. 38
    Alexander Gustafsson
    Alexander Gustafsson
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  39. 39
    Sean O'Connell
    Sean O'Connell
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  40. 40
    Tito Ortiz
    Tito Ortiz
    1-6 as underdog · 14%
    21.0