Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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50 fighters · / 100- 1
Jan Blachowicz10-3 as underdog · 77%66.5 - 2
Amanda Nunes6-1 as underdog · 86%66.5 - 3
Justin Gaethje9-3 as underdog · 75%64.5 - 4
Sean Strickland7-2 as underdog · 78%63.9 - 5
Brandon Moreno5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 6
Rani Yahya7-3 as underdog · 70%59.4 - 7
Krzysztof Jotko4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 8
Chris Duncan4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 9
James Krause4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 10
Fabricio Werdum4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 11
Brendan Allen5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 12
Aiemann Zahabi5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 13
Ketlen Vieira5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 14
Ben Rothwell5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 15
Nicolas Dalby6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 16
Dustin Poirier6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 17
Yoel Romero6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 18
Belal Muhammad7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 19
Robert Whittaker7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 20
Michael Johnson8-5 as underdog · 62%54.8 - 21
Charles Oliveira9-6 as underdog · 60%54.3 - 22
Chris Weidman4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 23
Mario Bautista4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 24
Darren Till4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 25
Steve Garcia4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 26
Kenny Robertson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 27
Alejandro Perez4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 28
Raoni Barcelos4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 29
Daniel Rodriguez4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 30
Sean Pierson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 31
Michael Trizano4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 32
Nikita Krylov4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 33
Constantinos Philippou5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 34
Aljamain Sterling5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 35
Brian Ortega5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 36
Renato Moicano5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 37
Abel Trujillo5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 38
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 39
Khalil Rountree Jr.6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 40
Rob Font6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 41
Daniel Kelly6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 42
Beneil Dariush6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 43
Deiveson Figueiredo7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 44
Julian Erosa8-6 as underdog · 57%51.7 - 45
Neil Magny11-10 as underdog · 52%49.2 - 46
Darren Elkins10-9 as underdog · 53%49.2 - 47
Raquel Pennington6-5 as underdog · 55%48.7 - 48
Derek Brunson5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 49
Alexander Volkov5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 50
Paul Felder5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6